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Membership warehouse retail · S&P 500
A strong membership engine is not the same as an inexpensive share.
保存された分析。本文、財務データ、DCF 評価は、この版に記録されたままです。
The October 7 audited filing and latest five-week sales update provide a useful test of Costco’s quality premium. This October 19 edition uses the full 52-week fiscal year ended August 30, not an annualised quarter. The question is whether expansion and member loyalty can produce enough incremental cash after higher investment to justify the market’s demanding earnings multiple.
Costco operates membership warehouses and e-commerce businesses. Its model combines a limited merchandise selection, high volumes and low prices with recurring membership fees. The latest full-year report covers 939 warehouses at August 30, 2026.
Low merchandise markups, purchasing scale and rapid inventory rotation reinforce the value of membership. Reinvesting efficiencies in prices can protect renewal and sales density. The investment thesis nevertheless needs cash returns on new warehouses, not just growth in their number or in membership-fee revenue.
Our interpretation is watchlist, not a demonstrated bargain. The saved price implies about 47.65 times reported FY2026 diluted EPS. That does not reveal investors’ exact forecasts, but it leaves little room for weaker cash conversion. Under the explicit assumptions below, none of the aggregate cash-flow scenarios establishes that the quality premium is cheap; the model is deliberately not a per-share target.
Re-underwrite if adjusted comparable growth stays below 4% across three consecutive retail-month updates, US/Canada renewal falls below 91% on the issuer’s lagged definition, or CFO less capex and finance-lease principal falls below USD7bn over a full year. These are our monitoring thresholds, not company guidance or predictions. A better valuation case requires durable cash growth after reinvestment, not only a lower discount rate.
英語の原文 · EN
Analysis: October 19, 2026. Financial year: September 1, 2025–August 30, 2026, 52 weeks; Q4: 16 weeks ended August 30. Earnings release: September 24. SEC filing date: October 7 (accepted October 6 at 21:13:15). Latest retail-sales observation: five weeks ended October 4, published October 7. Quote: October 16 session, retrieved October 18; no Monday US session has yet occurred at this review.
保存済みの株価: $989.11 · 2026-10-16. 株価取得日: 2026-10-18T10:42:35.460Z. NASDAQ:COST · market quote
財務情報源の確認・取得日: 2026-10-19T07:30:51Z.
FY2026 membership fees were USD5.907bn. Renewal was 92.3% in the US/Canada and 89.8% worldwide, but the definition looks back seven to eighteen months; it is not an October churn reading. Our interpretation: the economic moat is the incentive to renew when purchase savings exceed the fee. Membership revenue should not be equated with pure profit: merchandise operations, rewards and shared operating costs remain necessary to sustain it.
一次情報源 ↗FY2026 total revenue was USD303.154bn, including net merchandise sales USD297.247bn, versus total revenue USD275.235bn a year earlier. Operating income was USD11.685bn and net income USD9.226bn. Q4 diluted EPS USD6.75 includes a nonrecurring USD0.15 tariff-refund benefit after partial reinvestment in member value; the arithmetic excluding that item is USD6.60, not a forecast. Full-year GAAP diluted EPS is USD20.76. The business grew, but a one-off refund is not evidence of permanently higher margins.
一次情報源 ↗Retail September means five weeks ended October 4: sales USD30.02bn, +13.0%; comparable sales +11.4%, or +7.6% excluding fuel-price and FX changes. Digitally enabled sales rose 19.0%. The Labor Day shift added a little over 50 basis points to total and comparable sales. This supports demand resilience but does not establish the new quarter’s earnings or cash flow. Do not extrapolate the headline growth without its calendar and fuel effects.
一次情報源 ↗The audited CFO is USD15.817bn, superseding preliminary USD15.825bn. Less capex USD6.435bn gives USD9.382bn; less economic SBC USD0.924bn and finance-lease principal USD0.089bn gives our USD8.369bn proxy. This is not an issuer-defined distributable-cash measure. CFO benefited from inventory/payable movements; repeating that funding benefit is uncertain. Net other investing was an inflow of USD0.034bn: we exclude it rather than infer zero gross acquisitions. Securities purchases/maturities are treasury movements, not productive capex.
一次情報源 ↗At August 30 cash was USD20.207bn, short-term investments USD1.094bn and carrying debt USD6.162bn; finance-lease liabilities USD1.413bn and operating leases USD2.606bn are separate obligations. Debt principal of USD2.250bn matures in FY2027. Management plans approximately USD7.5bn capex and up to 33 openings including five relocations; these are plans, not achieved returns. Our model retains interest and operating rents in CFO, deducts finance-lease principal and assumes debt principal can be refinanced without net new borrowing. It adds no supposed excess cash, avoiding an unsupported cash-release bridge.
一次情報源 ↗The frozen October 16 price is USD989.11; the saved provider market capitalisation is approximately USD438.3bn. Dividing price by reported FY2026 diluted EPS gives 47.65x; this is trailing, not forward P/E. The annual diluted weighted average of 444.427m shares is not the same as 443.129m outstanding on September 29 and is not used as today’s fully diluted denominator. No current consensus, independent float/ownership or complete current dilution bridge was verified for this edition. Consequently there is no precise market-implied growth claim, per-share target or upside percentage. Evidence on new-store returns and post-capex cash conversion is needed before a positive valuation conclusion.
一次情報源 ↗起点の対象期間: 2025-09-01 / 2026-08-30 · 52 weeks. CFO 15.817 USD 10億 − 設備投資 6.435 USD 10億 − SBC 0.924 USD 10億 − finance-lease principal 0.089 USD 10億 = 8.369 USD 10億.
通年の起点代理値（×1）: 8.369 USD 10億. The full 52-week base is not multiplied by 12/9 or treated as a current TTM. Model years Y1–Y5 follow this analysis, not the completed FY2026. The base case begins with a 15% cash-flow decline to allow for higher capex and partial working-capital normalisation, then grows 8/8/7/6%. These net paths assume continued productive reinvestment and no incremental acquisitions; they are not a line-by-line forecast or management guidance. Interest and operating lease costs stay in CFO; finance-lease principal is deducted. No separate net-debt deduction or surplus-cash addition is made.
計算式：PV = Σ CFₜ/(1+kₑ)ᵗ + CF₅(1+g)/(kₑ−g)/(1+kₑ)⁵。純キャッシュフローの成長には継続的な再投資、株式報酬、運転資本を織り込みます。永久成長率は、これらの費用控除後に持続可能な純キャッシュを前提とします。
| 年 | 成長率 | キャッシュフロー | 現在価値 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | -15% | 7.114 USD 10億 | 6.556 USD 10億 |
| Y2 | 8% | 7.683 USD 10億 | 6.526 USD 10億 |
| Y3 | 8% | 8.297 USD 10億 | 6.496 USD 10億 |
| Y4 | 7% | 8.878 USD 10億 | 6.406 USD 10億 |
| Y5 | 6% | 9.411 USD 10億 | 6.259 USD 10億 |
| シナリオ | kₑ / g | 5年間の成長率 | キャッシュフローの現在価値 | 評価額に占める継続価値の割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 弱気 | 10.5% / 1.5% | -25% → 0% → 3% → 3% → 3% | 71.195 USD 10億 | 65.95% |
| 基本 | 8.5% / 2.5% | -15% → 8% → 8% → 7% → 6% | 139.162 USD 10億 | 76.83% |
| 強気 | 7.5% / 3% | 0% → 13% → 12% → 10% → 8% | 242.601 USD 10億 | 82.69% |
弱気: Working-capital funding reverses and higher investment depresses cash; recovery remains slow and required equity returns rise.
基本: Initial normalisation, then membership and new-store productivity support cash growth after reinvestment; growth fades with maturity.
強気: Strong productivity absorbs capex without an initial cash decline; better renewal economics and lower required returns support a larger terminal value.
Aggregate cash-capacity PV, not enterprise value or a quoted-share target. Current dilution, usable excess cash and future lease/reinvestment commitments are not fully bridged. No Class A conversion issue is asserted for Costco. In the base case roughly 77% of PV is terminal, so the 8.5% required equity return and 2.5% terminal growth are decisive assumptions. Cash-flow timing, working capital and capex are major uncertainties; no scenario probabilities or precise investment return are assigned.
01Next official retail-month release: separate fuel, FX and calendar effects from underlying demand; no unconfirmed publication day is assumed.
02FY2027 opening and investment progress versus management’s up-to-33 openings including five relocations and approximately USD7.5bn capex plan.
03Next quarterly and annual disclosures: renewal, sales density and cash conversion after working-capital movements. These are evidence windows, not promised positive catalysts.
01Multiple compression: continued business growth need not offset a fall in the earnings multiple.
02Higher capex, site cannibalisation, labor and logistics costs can reduce incremental cash returns; working-capital benefits can reverse.
03Tariffs, fuel-price and FX effects, cybersecurity and competitive pricing. Passing savings to members supports the franchise but does not guarantee margin expansion.
分析をレビューしました:
Screen-grade, assumption-led aggregate levered cash-capacity model; not FCFF, consensus or a price target. The legacy WACC/fallback fields are unused for this edition. The cost of equity is a scenario assumption, not a measured WACC. No forecast acquisitions are asserted, no missing acquisition field is set to zero, and the separately reported net other-investing inflow is not treated as recurring operating cash.
市場価格と開示資料には、それぞれ固有の日付があります。キャッシュフローの推移、株主資本の要求収益率、永久成長率はWMAの分析上の仮定です。負債返済後のキャッシュフローをWACCで割り引くことはしません。
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