Microsoft reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on October 28. Revenue rose 19%, Azure revenue 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligation reached USD677bn, while cash additions to property and equipment doubled year over year to USD39.4bn. The same quarter therefore shows both the strength of demand and the cost of supplying it.
Microsoft develops and licenses software, provides cloud infrastructure and AI services, and operates productivity, security, developer, advertising and gaming platforms. Fiscal 2027 reporting uses the Agents and Infra and Devices and Consumer segments.
英語の原文 · EN
4つの異なる日付Analysis: November 2, 2026. Latest report period: fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026; earnings release and 10-Q: October 28. Quote: Nasdaq close October 30. FY2026 annual report: July 29.
保存済みの株価: $521.91 · 2026-10-30. 株価取得日: 2026-11-02T07:03:37Z. Nasdaq:MSFT · market quote
財務情報源の確認・取得日: 2026-11-02T07:03:37Z.
01
Business model: one enterprise identity across software and compute
Microsoft sells metered cloud capacity, subscriptions, licenses, advertising and devices. Azure, Microsoft 365, GitHub, security, data and industry applications share enterprise identities, contracts and distribution. The model can expand revenue per customer, but growing AI workloads require datacenters, GPUs, networking, power and long-lived commitments before all contracted revenue is recognized.
In fiscal Q1 2027, Agents and Infra generated USD76.795bn of revenue and USD40.558bn of operating income. Devices and Consumer generated USD15.484bn and USD5.357bn. The new segment structure improves visibility into the cloud-heavy engine, but prior periods were recast; historical comparisons must use the company's recast tables.
一次情報源 ↗02
Latest results: acceleration with different quality signals
For the three months ended September 30, revenue was USD92.279bn, operating income USD45.915bn and GAAP net income USD36.629bn. Revenue grew 19% and operating income 21%. GAAP net income rose 32%, but included a USD207m net gain from OpenAI investments; management's non-GAAP net income was USD36.422bn, up 18%. The DCF does not substitute that adjusted earnings measure for cash flow.
Azure revenue grew 48%, Microsoft Cloud revenue reached USD63.9bn and commercial remaining performance obligation was USD677bn. Commercial bookings fell 12% because the prior-year quarter contained large commitments. These measures capture different clocks: bookings, contracted obligations and recognized revenue are not interchangeable.
一次情報源 ↗03
Cash flow and balance sheet: liquidity is strong, reinvestment is stronger
Quarterly operating cash flow was USD58.000bn and cash additions to property and equipment were USD39.367bn, leaving USD18.633bn before share compensation and acquisitions. At September 30, cash plus short-term investments was USD64.509bn; current and long-term debt totaled USD35.481bn. Finance-lease liabilities were USD70.973bn and are disclosed separately from the debt figure used on the page.
The trailing-twelve-month bridge combines FY2026 with the replacement of fiscal Q1 2026 by fiscal Q1 2027: CFO USD195.878bn, cash capex USD135.921bn, SBC USD12.556bn and acquisitions/intangibles USD1.562bn. The resulting USD45.839bn starting cash capacity is an analytical bridge, not a reported Microsoft subtotal. Purchases of marketable investments are treasury activity. The separate USD26.601bn TTM 'other investing' outflow is not deducted because the filing aggregates component-support activity with other items; treating all of it as permanent capex would reduce the starting point to USD19.238bn and is shown as a model boundary.
一次情報源 ↗04
DCF and market expectations: a reinvestment-sensitive range
The October 30 Nasdaq close was USD521.91, down 1.55% that session; Microsoft's investor page showed market capitalization of USD3,875.80bn using an LSEG-delayed quote. This market value is context, not an input used to force a target. The DCF discounts the disclosed aggregate cash-capacity proxy under three assumption sets and does not add net cash, private-investment values or a separate lease bridge.
Bear, base and bull growth paths are analyst assumptions, not company guidance. The range is especially sensitive to whether today's infrastructure spending proves temporary, whether AI revenue carries software-like margins, and how much supplier-support spending belongs economically with capex. For that reason the edition presents aggregate scenario values rather than a precise per-share target or upside percentage.
一次情報源 ↗5年間のDCF：キャッシュフロー創出力の合計
起点の対象期間: 2025-10-01 / 2026-09-30 · trailing twelve months. CFO 195.878 USD 10億 − 設備投資 135.921 USD 10億 − SBC 12.556 USD 10億 − TTM acquisitions, divestitures and purchases of intangible and other assets 1.562 USD 10億 = 45.839 USD 10億.
通年の起点代理値（×1）: 45.839 USD 10億. USD45.839bn is a calculated TTM analytical starting point, not reported Microsoft free cash flow or guidance. Forecast Y1–Y5 begins after September 30, 2026.
計算式：PV = Σ CFₜ/(1+kₑ)ᵗ + CF₅(1+g)/(kₑ−g)/(1+kₑ)⁵。純キャッシュフローの成長には継続的な再投資、株式報酬、運転資本を織り込みます。永久成長率は、これらの費用控除後に持続可能な純キャッシュを前提とします。
基準シナリオ · 分析日以降のモデル年度| 年 | 成長率 | キャッシュフロー | 現在価値 |
|---|
| Y1 | 10% | 50.423 USD 10億 | 46.688 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y2 | 11% | 55.969 USD 10億 | 47.985 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y3 | 10% | 61.566 USD 10億 | 48.873 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y4 | 8% | 66.492 USD 10億 | 48.873 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y5 | 6% | 70.481 USD 10億 | 47.968 USD 10億 |
|---|
シナリオ · 分析上の仮定、確率の割り当てなし| シナリオ | kₑ / g | 5年間の成長率 | キャッシュフローの現在価値 | 評価額に占める継続価値の割合 |
|---|
| 弱気 | 9.5% / 2.5% | -8% → 0% → 4% → 5% → 4% | 615.032 USD 10億 | 72.43% |
|---|
| 基本 | 8% / 3% | 10% → 11% → 10% → 8% → 6% | 1,228.535 USD 10億 | 80.43% |
|---|
| 強気 | 7% / 3.5% | 18% → 16% → 14% → 11% → 8% | 2,093.376 USD 10億 | 86.36% |
|---|
弱気: Capacity additions remain cash intensive, AI pricing and utilization disappoint, and cloud growth slows before reinvestment normalizes.
基本: Contracted cloud demand converts at healthy margins and the capital cycle gradually yields better cash conversion without assuming a return to pre-AI capex intensity.
強気: Azure, Copilot and data/security attachment compound while new capacity reaches high utilization and incremental margins improve faster than expected.
Aggregate cash capacity after interest and disclosed productive reinvestment. Marketable-security purchases are excluded; the separately aggregated USD26.601bn TTM other-investing outflow is a disclosed boundary. No exact per-share target, net-cash release, private-investment value or finance-lease bridge is asserted.