Microsoft reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on October 28. Revenue rose 19%, Azure revenue 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligation reached USD677bn, while cash additions to property and equipment doubled year over year to USD39.4bn. The same quarter therefore shows both the strength of demand and the cost of supplying it.
Microsoft develops and licenses software, provides cloud infrastructure and AI services, and operates productivity, security, developer, advertising and gaming platforms. Fiscal 2027 reporting uses the Agents and Infra and Devices and Consumer segments.
英文原文 · EN
四个不同日期Analysis: November 2, 2026. Latest report period: fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026; earnings release and 10-Q: October 28. Quote: Nasdaq close October 30. FY2026 annual report: July 29.
已保存报价: US$521.91 · 2026-10-30. 报价获取日期: 2026-11-02T07:03:37Z. Nasdaq:MSFT · market quote
财务来源核查及获取日期: 2026-11-02T07:03:37Z.
01
Business model: one enterprise identity across software and compute
Microsoft sells metered cloud capacity, subscriptions, licenses, advertising and devices. Azure, Microsoft 365, GitHub, security, data and industry applications share enterprise identities, contracts and distribution. The model can expand revenue per customer, but growing AI workloads require datacenters, GPUs, networking, power and long-lived commitments before all contracted revenue is recognized.
In fiscal Q1 2027, Agents and Infra generated USD76.795bn of revenue and USD40.558bn of operating income. Devices and Consumer generated USD15.484bn and USD5.357bn. The new segment structure improves visibility into the cloud-heavy engine, but prior periods were recast; historical comparisons must use the company's recast tables.
一手来源 ↗02
Latest results: acceleration with different quality signals
For the three months ended September 30, revenue was USD92.279bn, operating income USD45.915bn and GAAP net income USD36.629bn. Revenue grew 19% and operating income 21%. GAAP net income rose 32%, but included a USD207m net gain from OpenAI investments; management's non-GAAP net income was USD36.422bn, up 18%. The DCF does not substitute that adjusted earnings measure for cash flow.
Azure revenue grew 48%, Microsoft Cloud revenue reached USD63.9bn and commercial remaining performance obligation was USD677bn. Commercial bookings fell 12% because the prior-year quarter contained large commitments. These measures capture different clocks: bookings, contracted obligations and recognized revenue are not interchangeable.
一手来源 ↗03
Cash flow and balance sheet: liquidity is strong, reinvestment is stronger
Quarterly operating cash flow was USD58.000bn and cash additions to property and equipment were USD39.367bn, leaving USD18.633bn before share compensation and acquisitions. At September 30, cash plus short-term investments was USD64.509bn; current and long-term debt totaled USD35.481bn. Finance-lease liabilities were USD70.973bn and are disclosed separately from the debt figure used on the page.
The trailing-twelve-month bridge combines FY2026 with the replacement of fiscal Q1 2026 by fiscal Q1 2027: CFO USD195.878bn, cash capex USD135.921bn, SBC USD12.556bn and acquisitions/intangibles USD1.562bn. The resulting USD45.839bn starting cash capacity is an analytical bridge, not a reported Microsoft subtotal. Purchases of marketable investments are treasury activity. The separate USD26.601bn TTM 'other investing' outflow is not deducted because the filing aggregates component-support activity with other items; treating all of it as permanent capex would reduce the starting point to USD19.238bn and is shown as a model boundary.
一手来源 ↗04
DCF and market expectations: a reinvestment-sensitive range
The October 30 Nasdaq close was USD521.91, down 1.55% that session; Microsoft's investor page showed market capitalization of USD3,875.80bn using an LSEG-delayed quote. This market value is context, not an input used to force a target. The DCF discounts the disclosed aggregate cash-capacity proxy under three assumption sets and does not add net cash, private-investment values or a separate lease bridge.
Bear, base and bull growth paths are analyst assumptions, not company guidance. The range is especially sensitive to whether today's infrastructure spending proves temporary, whether AI revenue carries software-like margins, and how much supplier-support spending belongs economically with capex. For that reason the edition presents aggregate scenario values rather than a precise per-share target or upside percentage.
一手来源 ↗五年DCF：总体现金流能力
起始期间: 2025-10-01 / 2026-09-30 · trailing twelve months. CFO 195.878 USD 十亿 − 资本支出 135.921 USD 十亿 − SBC 12.556 USD 十亿 − TTM acquisitions, divestitures and purchases of intangible and other assets 1.562 USD 十亿 = 45.839 USD 十亿.
全年起始代理值（×1）: 45.839 USD 十亿. USD45.839bn is a calculated TTM analytical starting point, not reported Microsoft free cash flow or guidance. Forecast Y1–Y5 begins after September 30, 2026.
公式：PV = Σ CFₜ/(1+kₑ)ᵗ + CF₅(1+g)/(kₑ−g)/(1+kₑ)⁵。净现金流增长包含持续再投资、股权薪酬和营运资本的影响。永续增长假设扣除这些成本后的净现金具有可持续性。
基准情景 · 分析日期之后的模型年度| 年 | 增长率 | 现金流 | 现值 |
|---|
| Y1 | 10% | 50.423 USD 十亿 | 46.688 USD 十亿 |
|---|
| Y2 | 11% | 55.969 USD 十亿 | 47.985 USD 十亿 |
|---|
| Y3 | 10% | 61.566 USD 十亿 | 48.873 USD 十亿 |
|---|
| Y4 | 8% | 66.492 USD 十亿 | 48.873 USD 十亿 |
|---|
| Y5 | 6% | 70.481 USD 十亿 | 47.968 USD 十亿 |
|---|
情景 · 分析假设，未赋予概率| 情景 | kₑ / g | 五年增长率 | 现金流现值 | 终值占比 |
|---|
| 悲观 | 9.5% / 2.5% | -8% → 0% → 4% → 5% → 4% | 615.032 USD 十亿 | 72.43% |
|---|
| 基准 | 8% / 3% | 10% → 11% → 10% → 8% → 6% | 1,228.535 USD 十亿 | 80.43% |
|---|
| 乐观 | 7% / 3.5% | 18% → 16% → 14% → 11% → 8% | 2,093.376 USD 十亿 | 86.36% |
|---|
悲观: Capacity additions remain cash intensive, AI pricing and utilization disappoint, and cloud growth slows before reinvestment normalizes.
基准: Contracted cloud demand converts at healthy margins and the capital cycle gradually yields better cash conversion without assuming a return to pre-AI capex intensity.
乐观: Azure, Copilot and data/security attachment compound while new capacity reaches high utilization and incremental margins improve faster than expected.
Aggregate cash capacity after interest and disclosed productive reinvestment. Marketable-security purchases are excluded; the separately aggregated USD26.601bn TTM other-investing outflow is a disclosed boundary. No exact per-share target, net-cash release, private-investment value or finance-lease bridge is asserted.