AstraZeneca published nine-month and third-quarter results on October 30. Nine-month revenue rose 7% at constant exchange rates to USD46.881bn and reported operating profit reached USD11.797bn, while 12 Phase III programmes produced positive readouts. Yet operating cash inflow fell to USD10.890bn from USD12.233bn and net debt rose to USD25.833bn. The edition therefore tests whether scientific output is becoming durable cash value rather than relying on adjusted earnings alone.
AstraZeneca researches, develops, manufactures and commercialises prescription medicines across Oncology, BioPharmaceuticals and Rare Disease. Revenue is diversified by medicine and geography, but long-term economics depend on patents, clinical success, reimbursement, launch execution and reinvestment in internal and acquired science.
英語の原文 · EN
4つの異なる日付Analysis: November 9, 2026. Latest report period: nine months ended September 30; results and SEC 6-K: October 30. Quote: London Stock Exchange close November 6. FY2025 Form 20-F filed February 24, 2026.
保存済みの株価: £139.30 · 2026-11-06. 株価取得日: 2026-11-09T07:14:07Z. London Stock Exchange:AZN · market quote
財務情報源の確認・取得日: 2026-11-09T07:14:07Z.
01
Business model: three therapy engines, one reinvestment loop
For 9M 2026, Oncology generated USD21.889bn, 47% of total revenue, and grew 16% at constant exchange rates. BioPharmaceuticals contributed USD16.731bn and Rare Disease USD7.544bn. The portfolio is therefore broad, but the growth mix is uneven: respiratory and immunology and Rare Disease expanded while CVRM and infectious disease contracted.
The economic moat rests on patents, clinical evidence, regulatory approvals, manufacturing and access rather than a single consumer brand. It must be rebuilt continuously. Internal R&D expense was USD11.439bn in the first nine months, while external licences and acquisitions created a second reinvestment channel outside operating cash flow.
一次情報源 ↗02
Latest results: reported growth and the cash-flow gap
Nine-month revenue was USD46.881bn, reported operating profit USD11.797bn and profit for the period USD8.705bn. Reported EPS rose 10% and Core EPS 14% at actual exchange rates. Management retained FY2026 guidance for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and low-double-digit Core EPS growth at constant exchange rates; this guidance is not used as the model's forecast.
Operating cash inflow fell USD1.343bn year over year to USD10.890bn. The filing attributes the decline chiefly to working capital, Farxiga loss of exclusivity, higher cash tax and currency effects. The result is a useful warning that earnings and cash can diverge during a patent and launch transition.
一次情報源 ↗03
Debt and capital allocation: flexibility with a rising claim
At September 30, cash and current investments were USD8.166bn, gross debt including leases USD34.191bn and company-defined net debt USD25.833bn, up USD2.459bn since year-end. New long-term borrowing of USD4.972bn exceeded USD2.456bn of repayments. Moody's A1 and S&P A+ long-term ratings were unchanged.
AstraZeneca reported USD12.8bn of financial resources, including USD4.9bn of undrawn committed facilities available to April 2031 and no financial covenants. That supports pipeline funding, but it does not make external R&D free: the return on acquired assets and the refinancing of near-term maturities remain part of the equity risk.
一次情報源 ↗04
DCF: a conservative post-reinvestment capacity test
The TTM bridge is built only from filed periods: FY2025 less 9M 2025 plus 9M 2026. It produces USD13.232bn of operating cash flow, USD3.463bn of tangible and software capital expenditure, USD0.764bn of share-based payment expense and USD5.276bn of cash spent on acquired intangibles, businesses and contingent consideration. The remaining USD3.729bn is an analytical cash-capacity starting point, not reported free cash flow.
The bear, base and bull cases use different five-year cash growth and equity discount-rate paths. All values are aggregate present values before a complete net-debt, pension, contingent-liability, currency and share-count bridge. A high terminal share is a warning about model duration, not evidence of precision.
一次情報源 ↗5年間のDCF：キャッシュフロー創出力の合計
起点の対象期間: 2025-10-01 / 2026-09-30 · trailing twelve months. CFO 13.232 USD 10億 − 設備投資 3.463 USD 10億 − SBC 0.764 USD 10億 − acquired intangibles, businesses and contingent consideration 5.276 USD 10億 = 3.729 USD 10億.
通年の起点代理値（×1）: 3.729 USD 10億. USD3.729bn is a calculated TTM analytical starting point, not AstraZeneca's reported free cash flow or guidance. Forecast Y1–Y5 begins after September 30, 2026.
計算式：PV = Σ CFₜ/(1+kₑ)ᵗ + CF₅(1+g)/(kₑ−g)/(1+kₑ)⁵。純キャッシュフローの成長には継続的な再投資、株式報酬、運転資本を織り込みます。永久成長率は、これらの費用控除後に持続可能な純キャッシュを前提とします。
基準シナリオ · 分析日以降のモデル年度| 年 | 成長率 | キャッシュフロー | 現在価値 |
|---|
| Y1 | 8% | 4.027 USD 10億 | 3.712 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y2 | 7% | 4.309 USD 10億 | 3.661 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y3 | 6% | 4.568 USD 10億 | 3.576 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y4 | 5% | 4.796 USD 10億 | 3.461 USD 10億 |
|---|
| Y5 | 4% | 4.988 USD 10億 | 3.317 USD 10億 |
|---|
シナリオ · 分析上の仮定、確率の割り当てなし| シナリオ | kₑ / g | 5年間の成長率 | キャッシュフローの現在価値 | 評価額に占める継続価値の割合 |
|---|
| 弱気 | 10% / 1.5% | -5% → 0% → 2% → 2% → 2% | 41.589 USD 10億 | 67.02% |
|---|
| 基本 | 8.5% / 2.5% | 8% → 7% → 6% → 5% → 4% | 74.396 USD 10億 | 76.17% |
|---|
| 強気 | 7.5% / 3% | 12% → 11% → 9% → 7% → 5% | 110.481 USD 10億 | 81.93% |
|---|
弱気: Patent erosion, slower reimbursement and further external portfolio spending absorb launch growth; a higher required return reflects clinical and capital-allocation risk.
基本: Oncology, respiratory/immunology and rare-disease launches more than offset mature-product decline, while post-reinvestment cash growth fades toward a mature pharmaceutical rate.
強気: Multiple late-stage assets reach broad labels and commercial scale, working capital recovers and external R&D spending produces stronger cash productivity.
Aggregate levered cash capacity after interest, tax and disclosed productive/external portfolio reinvestment. No per-share target or separate release of cash is asserted; debt, leases, pensions, contingent liabilities, currency and diluted shares require a separate equity bridge.