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CFO − capex = company-defined FCF. Matching nine-month periods, without annualising a seasonal quarter. This differs from forecast FCFF in the DCF.
Source: Lime · Q3 2026 · 03.11.2026 ↗Dashed line: USD 18.22 closing price on 9 November 2026. DCF anchor: 30 September 2026. The 70m denominator is an assumption, not a reported fully diluted capitalisation. Price history ↗
| Year | Fleet growth | RVD growth | EBIT % | Capex % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.0% | -1.0% | 6.0% | 16.0% |
| 2028 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 15.5% |
| 2029 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 15.0% |
| 2030 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 14.5% |
| 2031 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% |
| Year | Fleet growth | RVD growth | EBIT % | Capex % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.0% | 2.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% |
| 2028 | 10.0% | 1.0% | 10.5% | 14.5% |
| 2029 | 8.0% | 1.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| 2030 | 6.0% | 1.0% | 13.0% | 13.5% |
| 2031 | 4.0% | 1.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Year | Fleet growth | RVD growth | EBIT % | Capex % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.0% | 2.0% | 12.0% | 15.0% |
| 2028 | 15.0% | 2.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% |
| 2029 | 12.0% | 2.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| 2030 | 10.0% | 2.0% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| 2031 | 8.0% | 2.0% | 18.0% | 13.0% |
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Lime (Neutron Holdings): DCF valuation after Q3 2026 results
EN Le texte de l’article est disponible en anglais ; le titre est traduit.
EN Analysis: 9 November 2026. Latest results: Lime’s 3 November release, unaudited through 30 September. DCF anchor: 30 September 2026; Q4 2026 and 2027–2031 forecasts. Reported figures, guidance and author assumptions are identified. All values in USD.
Lime is growing, but shareholders need cash after renewing the fleet. Our DCF indicates approximately USD 1.44 billion of equity value and USD 20.56 per share equivalent in the base case. Scenarios span USD 8.80–38.89. These are outputs of our own model, conditional on disclosed assumptions.
1. What are we valuing?
Neutron Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: LIME) rents electric bikes and scooters. Vehicles, maintenance and local permits are essential. We value operations using FCFF, then bridge to common equity. SEC prospectus, 30 June 2026
2. Latest data: growth does not guarantee margins
Average Q3 operational fleet: 447,184 vehicles. FY2026 guidance: revenue USD 1.04–1.10bn, adjusted EBITDA USD 253–255m, capex USD 172–177m. Guidance is management’s forecast. Lime results, 3 November 2026
3. Why reported net income is insufficient
Nine-month net income was USD 277.802m, against USD 5.661m pre-tax income, reflecting a USD 272.141m tax benefit. Our DCF does not capitalise this effect. Adjusted EBITDA excludes depreciation and SBC, among other items. Lime statements and definitions
Company FCF equals CFO less capex; it is not automatically FCFF. Our model retains fleet costs, reinvestment, taxes and the economic cost of share-based compensation.
4. DCF structure and author assumptions
The model anchor is 30 September 2026, matching the balance sheet. It uses information available on 9 November. We forecast Q4 2026 and 2027–2031, with period-end cash flows: discount periods are 0.25 years for Q4 and 1.25 for 2027. This is not a valuation actually prepared in September.
FCFF = EBIT × (1 − tax) + D&A − capex − change in operating working capital.
Revenue equals annual average fleet × 365 × revenue per vehicle per day (RVD). Our 2026E starting point is USD 1,080.002m: nine-month revenue of 835.002m plus 245m, the Q4 guidance midpoint. The 400,000 annual average fleet is our working estimate, not a reported KPI; implied RVD is USD 7.40. We do not annualise the peak Q3 fleet.
Base assumptions for 2027–2031:
For Q4, we assume zero EBIT, D&A at 12%, capex of USD 17.906m (174.5m full-year less nine-month capex) and zero change in NWC. Implied FCFF is USD 11.494m. Zero EBIT plus D&A of 29.4m and assumed SBC of 14.6m gives adjusted EBITDA of 44m, the Q4 guidance midpoint, assuming no other adjustments. These are author estimates. Future SBC is not added back to EBIT.
5. Base-case cash-flow forecast
All figures below are author estimates in USD million.
Terminal 2032 FCFF is USD 145.7m, recalculated using 2.5% growth, 14% EBIT margin, 11% D&A, 13% capex and NWC at 2% of sales. Slower growth changes reinvestment needs; we do not mechanically multiply final-year FCFF by 1.025.
End-2031 TV = 2032 FCFF / (WACC − g). Discounted terminal value contributes 73.3% of EV, making durability beyond 2031 a central valuation risk.
6. From enterprise value to common equity
We retain an assumed USD 50m operating buffer from disclosed cash of 417.746m and do not add restricted cash. Converted notes and the repaid term loan are not deducted again. Operating leases remain an operating cost in EBIT and are not deducted a second time as debt. 10-Q: IPO transactions · 30 September balance sheet
We use 70 million share equivalents, an assumed dilution proxy. Disclosures show 65.323m period-end common shares and 69.847m Q3 weighted-average diluted shares; neither is a complete current capitalisation table. Hypothetical option exercise proceeds are not added. With 66/70/74m share equivalents, base value is USD 21.80/20.56/19.45.
The model uses the latest disclosed balance sheet without inventing cash movements after 30 September.
7. Scenarios and sensitivity
Downside assumes fleet growth fading from 5% to 2%, RVD falling 1% in 2027 then flat, and capex declining from 16% to 14% of sales. Upside: fleet growth 18%→8%, annual RVD growth 2%, capex 15%→13%. Expand the model under the valuation chart for every annual assumption. We do not assign unsupported scenario probabilities.
Sensitivity of base-case cash flows to WACC and g, USD per share equivalent:
An additional one percentage point of capex / revenue in every forecast year and the terminal period reduces base value to USD 18.51. Fleet reinvestment is therefore a major economic hinge.
8. What is priced in and what should be checked next?
The 9 November 2026 closing price was USD 18.22, at 16:00 New York time, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence via Stock Analysis. This is a separately dated benchmark; the DCF retains its 30 September balance-sheet anchor. Price history
Holding other base inputs constant, USD 18.22 corresponds to a terminal EBIT margin of approximately 11.7%, compared with our 14%. This single-variable mathematical backsolve does not establish market consensus.
Author assessment: the base-case premium to the share price is modest relative to downside risk. Potential value creation comes from fleet productivity and margins, rather than assumed stock-market multiple expansion. Revenue growth alone is insufficient.
An independently estimated beta, complete current dilution schedule and evidence for long-term reinvestment assumptions remain missing. This is an educational scenario analysis, not a precise price target or an investment recommendation.
Les messages reflètent les opinions personnelles de l'auteur à la date de publication. Ce ne sont pas des recommandations d'investissement.