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Decisions announced 7 October–5 November 2026. A selected sample, not a global statistic. 100 bp = 1 percentage point. The table above provides rate levels, dates and sources.
WGC / Metals Focus estimates, including undisclosed activity. Scale: 0–350 tonnes. Net purchases = purchases minus sales.
| Quarter | Tonnes |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 226.3 |
| Q4 2025 | 209.9 |
| Q1 2026 | 57.7 |
| Q2 2026 | 296.3 |
| Q3 2026 | 321.2 |
Rounded values. Selected countries, not a worldwide total.
Source: World Gold Council — Central banks, Q3 2026; reporting captured to 30 October 2026 ↗
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Central banks: rate hikes return as gold flows into the vaults
EN 記事本文は英語です。タイトルは翻訳されています。
EN Information as of 8 November 2026. Latest decisions of 10 selected banks: 7 October–5 November 2026. Gold charts: Q3 and Q1–Q3 2026, WGC release of 3 November; China: October, SAFE release of 7 November; NBP: governor’s statement of 5 November. Estimates, reported quantities and editorial interpretation are distinguished.
Recent central-bank decisions show renewed rate hikes in some economies, cautious pauses in others and continued gold accumulation. The cost of credit, balance-sheet reduction and reserve management are separate policies and need not move in the same direction.
1. Hikes, cuts and pauses: the latest decisions
Among ten selected central banks, using their latest decisions announced between 7 October and 5 November 2026, four raised rates, one cut and five held. This is a summary of this sample, not a worldwide count or a full-year tally. 25 basis points (bp) equals 0.25 percentage points.
Dates refer to the decision announcements. The RBA increase took effect on 4 November; the BoE meeting ended on 4 November and its announcement followed the next day. The levels refer to different domestic instruments: nominal rates alone do not provide a comparable measure of policy restrictiveness.
2. Why are some banks raising borrowing costs again?
The UK, Australia and Canada emphasise energy-cost pressures and the risk of transmission to other prices. The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4% by an 8–1 vote; the remaining member wanted a larger increase. It projects CPI inflation rising from 3.5% in September to around 5% in mid-2027. This is the bank’s forecast, rather than a known future outcome. BoE · RBA · BoC
The Fed and ECB paused. In the US, two FOMC members nevertheless preferred a 25 bp hike, while the majority held the 3.75–4.00% range. Türkiye cut from 37% to 36%, citing weak demand and a slowing underlying inflation trend. Brazil halted its cuts: after reducing Selic by 25 bp in September, it held at 13.75% in November. These decisions illustrate why a single global rate cycle is an inadequate description. Fed · ECB · CBRT · BCB, November · BCB, September
3. Gold: strong official demand despite higher interest rates
WGC estimates that central banks and other official institutions bought a net 321.2 tonnes of gold in Q3, against 226.3 tonnes a year earlier: approximately 42% more. The Q1–Q3 total is 675.2 tonnes. These global estimates include undisclosed activity. Net purchases mean purchases less sales. WGC / Metals Focus, Q3 2026
4. Who bought and who reduced reserves?
Reported Q3 net buying was about 120 tonnes; WGC estimates that undisclosed activity represented 63% of global demand. China and Poland led buying, while Russia reported a reduction. The chart contains selected net changes, rounded to tonnes; these do not add up to the global estimate. WGC: central banks
A change in the dollar valuation of reserves is not a measure of bullion buying or selling. To assess flows, we compare quantities. Reserve data arrive with a lag and may be revised; they are not a complete ledger of transaction dates and prices. WGC: reserve-data methodology
5. More recent signals: China in October, Poland in November
China: official SAFE data released on 7 November show holdings rising from 77.47 million to 78.30 million troy ounces at end-October. The increase of 830,000 ounces is approximately 25.8 tonnes, our calculation using 32,150.7466 ounces per tonne. This monthly increase is shown separately from the Q3 figures. SAFE, official reserve assets
Poland: on 5 November the NBP governor said the bank had reached its 700-tonne gold target, according to Reuters. This is the stated total stock, rather than a 700-tonne purchase in the latest month. We do not assign the entire difference from the September data to October without detailed confirmation of the period. Reuters / Kitco
6. Beyond rates: ECB portfolio runoff and faster Japanese ETF sales
The ECB continues to reduce its APP and PEPP portfolios by not reinvesting principal from maturing securities. This is gradual portfolio runoff, rather than an announcement of immediate market liquidation. ECB, 29 October
The Bank of Japan held its rate at around 1.25% but announced a faster annual ETF sales pace, from approximately JPY 330 billion to JPY 860 billion on a book-value basis, around 2.6 times the previous pace. The change starts in January 2027; it is not a measure of sales already completed. BoJ, 30 October
7. What does this mean for markets?
Editorial interpretation: investors should monitor three distinct transmission channels.
Educational and informational material. Not an investment recommendation.
投稿は出版時点での著者の個人的な見解を反映しています。これらは投資を推奨するものではありません。