Global Valuation Snapshot

Current context

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. The ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, effective 16 September. The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75%; its 17 September release reports UK CPI inflation of 3.1% in August. The Bank of Japan’s 1.25% overnight call-rate guideline became effective on 24 September. South Africa’s policy rate rose to 7.25%, effective 25 September. Australia’s 4.60% cash-rate target, announced on 29 September, is effective from 30 September. These rates describe different instruments and do not measure investment returns.

Reassess valuation against financing costs, not the lowest multiple alone.

Analytical interpretation: tighter policy can increase the discount rate applied to future earnings. A low P/E can also reflect weaker expected growth, sector concentration or deteriorating profits. The historical ranking is a starting point for comparing earnings quality, currency exposure and balance-sheet resilience; it is not a list of markets to buy. Dividend yields refer to MSCI country indices and must not be read as yields on the different headline benchmarks shown beside P/E.

What to monitor

Monitor earnings forecasts, refinancing costs and real yields. At an unchanged share price, lower earnings forecasts raise forward P/E. Falling prices reduce forward P/E when earnings forecasts are unchanged. Check the date and earnings basis before comparing valuations.

Sources and observation dates

• RBA — decision 29 September; 4.60% effective 30 September 2026
• SARB — 7.25% effective 25 September 2026
• MSCI USA Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Canada Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Mexico Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Brazil Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI United Kingdom Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Germany Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI France Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Spain Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Italy Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Netherlands Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Switzerland Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Poland Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI China Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Japan Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI India Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Korea Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Taiwan Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Indonesia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Malaysia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Philippines Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI Australia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• MSCI South Africa Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
• STOXX — DAX fundamentals, 31 August 2026
• Nikkei — forecast P/E on index weights, 30 September 2026
• NBP via Bankier.pl — gold reserves, 31 August 2026
• 1 Finance Research — benchmark P/E and YTD, 31 August 2026
• Bank of Japan — 1.25% effective 24 September 2026
• Federal Reserve — decision, 16 September 2026
• ECB — decision, 10 September; effective 16 September 2026
• Bank of England — decision and August CPI, 17 September 2026
• World Gold Council — release, 3 September 2026; country observations lag
• IMF — Fiscal Monitor data (2026 estimates from April edition)

Headline P/E refers to the named local index; forward P/E and dividend yield refer to the named MSCI country index. Dates and earnings definitions differ. Compare identical baskets and methods. DAX P/E now uses the official STOXX figure. Nikkei 225 uses the 30 September forecast P/E, explicitly labeled. Other verified benchmark observations remain dated 31 August. Still awaiting a verified replacement: WIG P/E (13 August), S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE/JSE All Share P/E (31 July). Their older observations are retained with a visible note. MSCI figures describe separate country indices. Polish gold reserves: 31 August 2026, NBP data reported by Bankier.pl. Other countries retain their own reporting dates; the latest WGC workbook could not be accessed, so those amounts were not reconfirmed. GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and gross debt are 2026 IMF forecasts. Policy rates and gold holdings have separate observation dates and sources beside each value.