Debt & Central Bank Gold
A cross-country comparison of government leverage and official gold buffers, ordered by gross government debt relative to GDP.
Current context
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. The ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, effective 16 September. The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75%; its 17 September release reports UK CPI inflation of 3.1% in August. The Bank of Japan’s 1.25% overnight call-rate guideline became effective on 24 September. South Africa’s policy rate rose to 7.25%, effective 25 September. Australia’s 4.60% cash-rate target, announced on 29 September, is effective from 30 September. These rates describe different instruments and do not measure investment returns.
Debt service and refinancing capacity matter more than a single debt ratio.
Analytical interpretation: gross debt measures obligations before financial assets, while net debt depends on definitions and asset coverage. Higher policy rates feed into interest costs gradually as debt reprices. Official gold is held in the monetary sector and is not automatically a freely available fiscal asset; gold tonnes cannot be subtracted from debt-to-GDP ratios. A high gold stock alone does not demonstrate sovereign solvency.
What to monitor
Track maturity schedules, effective interest costs, primary balances, foreign-currency debt and reserve liquidity. Compare debt ratios only within a consistent definition and reporting period. Missing net-debt observations remain unavailable rather than zero.
| Country | Gross debt / GDP · 2026e | Net debt / GDP · 2026e | Official gold | Gold data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 🇯🇵 Japan | 204.4% | 134.3% | 845.97 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 2. 🇮🇹 Italy | 138.4% | 129.0% | 2,451.84 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 3. 🇺🇸 United States | 125.8% | 98.5% | 8,133.46 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 4. 🇫🇷 France | 118.4% | 110.2% | 2,437 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 5. 🇨🇦 Canada | 110.7% | 10.3% | 0 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 6. 🇨🇳 China | 106.9% | — | 2,346 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 7. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 103.6% | 95.5% | 310.29 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 8. 🇪🇸 Spain | 98.2% | 82.8% | 281.58 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 9. 🇧🇷 Brazil | 96.5% | 70.8% | 171.69 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 10. 🇮🇳 India | 83.4% | — | 881 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 11. 🇿🇦 South Africa | 78.9% | 76.8% | 125.44 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 12. 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 69.5% | — | 43.86 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 13. 🇵🇱 Poland | 65.7% | 53.4% | 647.98 t | 31 Aug 2026 · NBP via Bankier.pl |
| 14. 🇩🇪 Germany | 64.6% | 49.4% | 3,350.25 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 15. 🇲🇽 Mexico | 62.7% | 54.2% | 120.03 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 16. 🇵🇭 Philippines | 60.2% | — | 134 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 17. 🇰🇷 South Korea | 54.4% | 10.3% | 104.45 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 18. 🇦🇺 Australia | 50.6% | 32.1% | 79.87 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 19. 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 44.1% | 36.4% | 612.45 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 20. 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 41.5% | 39.3% | 87.09 t | Jun 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 21. 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 38.5% | 18.3% | 1,039.94 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
| 22. 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 27.6% | — | 423.63 t | Mar 2026 · WGC / IMF |
Sources and observation dates
- RBA — decision 29 September; 4.60% effective 30 September 2026
- SARB — 7.25% effective 25 September 2026
- MSCI USA Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Canada Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Mexico Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Brazil Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI United Kingdom Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Germany Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI France Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Spain Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Italy Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Netherlands Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Switzerland Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Poland Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI China Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Japan Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI India Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Korea Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Taiwan Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Indonesia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Malaysia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Philippines Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI Australia Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- MSCI South Africa Index — P/E, forward P/E, dividend yield, 2026-08-31
- STOXX — DAX fundamentals, 31 August 2026
- Nikkei — forecast P/E on index weights, 30 September 2026
- NBP via Bankier.pl — gold reserves, 31 August 2026
- 1 Finance Research — benchmark P/E and YTD, 31 August 2026
- Bank of Japan — 1.25% effective 24 September 2026
- Federal Reserve — decision, 16 September 2026
- ECB — decision, 10 September; effective 16 September 2026
- Bank of England — decision and August CPI, 17 September 2026
- World Gold Council — release, 3 September 2026; country observations lag
- IMF — Fiscal Monitor data (2026 estimates from April edition)
Headline P/E refers to the named local index; forward P/E and dividend yield refer to the named MSCI country index. Dates and earnings definitions differ. Compare identical baskets and methods. DAX P/E now uses the official STOXX figure. Nikkei 225 uses the 30 September forecast P/E, explicitly labeled. Other verified benchmark observations remain dated 31 August. Still awaiting a verified replacement: WIG P/E (13 August), S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE/JSE All Share P/E (31 July). Their older observations are retained with a visible note. MSCI figures describe separate country indices. Polish gold reserves: 31 August 2026, NBP data reported by Bankier.pl. Other countries retain their own reporting dates; the latest WGC workbook could not be accessed, so those amounts were not reconfirmed. GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and gross debt are 2026 IMF forecasts. Policy rates and gold holdings have separate observation dates and sources beside each value.