{ "title": "Future of stock exchanges · WMA research register", "reviewedDate": "2026-10-27", "reviewType": "Selective literature review, not a systematic meta-analysis; economic scenarios are editorial inferences, not quantitative forecasts.", "academicLiterature": { "reviewedDate": "2026-10-27", "scope": "Scientific market-microstructure research supporting a cautious article about survival and transformation of exchanges. Research findings are not forecasts that a given operator must survive.", "googleScholar": { "attemptedUrls": [ "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=future+stock+exchanges+market+microstructure+frequent+batch+auctions", "https://scholar.google.de/citations?hl=de&user=vVNdS-cAAAAJ" ], "actualAccess": "Search query inaccessible to the web tool; Budish author profile returned HTTP429. No Scholar result list or full text was successfully read. Do not claim a completed Google Scholar review. Bibliographic identities/findings instead checked at primary journal, author and institutional pages." }, "papers": [ { "id": "budish2015", "title": "The High-Frequency Trading Arms Race: Frequent Batch Auctions as a Market Design Response", "authors": "Eric Budish, Peter Cramton, John Shim", "journal": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics", "year": 2015, "volumeIssuePages": "130(4),1547–1621", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjv027", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/130/4/1547/1916146", "access": "Publisher full text read (open access/minimal text); journal issue and DOI verified.", "design": "Historical empirical ES–SPY comparison2005–2011 plus a deliberately simplified market-design theory model.", "findingPL": "Ciągłe, szeregowe przetwarzanie zleceń może tworzyć renty arbitrażowe nawet przy równoczesnym dostępie do publicznej informacji. Autorzy proponują częste aukcje pakietowe, w których konkurencję o minimalne przewagi szybkości zastępuje konkurencja cenowa.", "limitationPL": "Proponowana poprawa wynika z modelu o silnych założeniach, nie z globalnego eksperymentu wdrożeniowego. Historyczne wyniki ES–SPY nie opisują szybkości wszystkich rynków w2026r.", "articleUsePL": "Giełda może przetrwać, zmieniając reguły kojarzenia zleceń; innowacja nie musi oznaczać wyłącznie jeszcze szybszego handlu.", "chartData": { "metric": "Median duration of identified ES–SPY arbitrage opportunities", "unit": "milliseconds", "observations": [ { "year": 2005, "value": 97 }, { "year": 2011, "value": 7 } ], "notToClaim": "Not current2026 values, not median execution latency and not a marketwide time series. Do not invent intermediate years.", "citationLocator": "Introduction and FigureIV; publisher text lines74 and269.", "computedChangePercent": -92.78350515463917 } }, { "id": "aquilina2022", "title": "Quantifying the High-Frequency Trading ‘Arms Race’", "authors": "Matteo Aquilina, Eric Budish, Peter O’Neill", "journal": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics", "year": 2022, "volumeIssuePages": "137(1),493–564", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjab032", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/137/1/493/6368348", "authorUrl": "https://ericbudish.org/publication/quantifying-the-high-frequency-trading-arms-race/", "institutionalWorkingPaperUrl": "https://www.bis.org/publ/work955.pdf", "access": "Journal bibliographic record/abstract verified; author page and BIS working-paper full-source excerpts read. Publisher direct open had intermittent redirect failure; author source establishes final paper identity.", "design": "LSE exchange message data including failed trade/cancel attempts, allowing identification of winners and losers of latency races. Original dataset covers44 trading days17Aug–16Oct2015, drops corrupted7Sep, leaving43 days/FTSE350/about2.2bn messages. FTSE100 race-rate statistics are a subset.", "findingPL": "Wyścigi o opóźnione kwotowania odpowiadały za około20% obrotu w badanej próbie; sześć firm odpowiadało za ponad80% zwycięstw i porażek w takich wyścigach. Autorzy szacują, że usunięcie tego mechanizmu mogłoby obniżyć koszt płynności o17%.", "limitationPL": "Wartości dotyczą historycznych danych LSE, nie wszystkich dzisiejszych giełd.17% to kontrfaktyczny szacunek modelowy, a nie zrealizowana oszczędność. Globalne5mldUSD rocznie stanowi ekstrapolację autorów z próby brytyjskiej.", "articleUsePL": "Statystyczny przykład, dlaczego przyszła infrastruktura powinna ograniczać nieproduktywny wyścig szybkości, zachowując uczciwe ustalanie cen.", "stats": [ { "name": "Race share of trading volume", "value": 20, "unit": "percent, approximately", "kind": "historical observed estimate" }, { "name": "Top6 firms' share of race participation (wins/losses)", "value": 80, "unit": "percent, more than", "kind": "historical observed estimate" }, { "name": "Estimated reduction in liquidity cost if latency arbitrage eliminated", "value": 17, "unit": "percent", "kind": "counterfactual estimate" }, { "name": "Modal race duration", "valueMin": 5, "valueMax": 10, "unit": "microseconds", "kind": "historical observed mode" } ] }, { "id": "budish2024", "title": "A Theory of Stock Exchange Competition and Innovation: Will the Market Fix the Market?", "authors": "Eric Budish, Robin S. Lee, John J. Shim", "journal": "Journal of Political Economy", "year": 2024, "volumeIssuePages": "132(4),1209–1246", "publishedOnline": "2024-03-20", "doi": "10.1086/727284", "url": "https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/727284", "authorUrl": "https://ericbudish.org/publication/a-theory-of-stock-exchange-competition-and-innovation-will-the-market-fix-the-market/", "access": "Open-access primary journal full text and author page read; final2024 journal identity verified. Earlier NBER2019/revised2022 and author April2023 drafts are not the publication year.", "design": "Theoretical exchange-competition/adoption game tailored to modern US-market rules, supported by stylized institutional facts.", "findingPL": "Przychody z technologii szybkości mogą osłabiać bodźce operatorów do zmian, które usuwają arbitraż opóźnień. Konkurencja obniżająca opłaty transakcyjne nie gwarantuje automatycznie społecznie najlepszego projektu rynku.", "limitationPL": "Wynik zależy od modelu i amerykańskich szczegółów regulacyjnych; nie dowodzi, że każda giełda blokuje każdą innowację. To mechanizm bodźców, nie prognoza bankructwa/operatorowych udziałów.", "articleUsePL": "Scenariusz przyszłości powinien uwzględniać regulacje i strukturę przychodów, a nie sam postęp informatyczny. Wersja recenzowana pochodzi z2024r., nie2025r." }, { "id": "hendershott2011", "title": "Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity?", "authors": "Terrence Hendershott, Charles M. Jones, Albert J. Menkveld", "journal": "The Journal of Finance", "year": 2011, "volumeIssuePages": "66(1),1–33", "doi": "10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01624.x", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01624.x", "authorInstitutionUrl": "https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/hender/", "access": "Primary publisher full-text sections, scholarly-society issue and author's research list verified.", "design": "NYSE staggered introduction of automated quote dissemination in2003 used as an exogenous instrument for algorithmic trading; broader balanced panel943 common stocks,Feb2001–Dec2005.", "findingPL": "Automatyzacja poprawiała płynność przede wszystkim dużych spółek: zmniejszała spready i negatywną selekcję, a kwotowania stawały się bardziej informacyjne. To ważna przeciwwaga dla tezy, że każda forma handlu algorytmicznego szkodzi rynkowi.", "limitationPL": "Historyczna zmiana struktury NYSE nie jest eksperymentem ze współczesnymi agentami generatywnejAI. Wyniki małych spółek nie były istotne, a autorzy wskazują słabszą identyfikację/statystyczną moc w tej grupie.", "articleUsePL": "Technologia może poprawiać rynek; należy odróżnić automatyczną realizację i dostarczanie płynności od arbitrażu opóźnień." }, { "id": "foucault2008", "title": "Competition for Order Flow and Smart Order Routing Systems", "authors": "Thierry Foucault, Albert J. Menkveld", "journal": "The Journal of Finance", "year": 2008, "volumeIssuePages": "63(1),119–158", "doi": "10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01312.x", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01312.x", "access": "Primary Wiley abstract/bibliography read; published paper text found for verification, not an unauthenticated secondary summary.", "design": "Theory plus empirical comparison of Euronext/LSE competition for Dutch equity order flow.", "findingPL": "Po wejściuLSE skonsolidowana książka zleceń była głębsza. Fragmentacja obrotu może więc zwiększać podaż płynności, jeżeli inwestorzy mogą skutecznie kierować zlecenia między platformami i chroniona jest hierarchia cenowa zleceń.", "limitationPL": "To wynik określonego historycznego rynku i warunków routingu, nie uniwersalna zasada, że więcej platform zawsze oznacza lepszy rynek.", "articleUsePL": "Możliwe jest współistnienie wielu połączonych platform zamiast jednej światowej giełdy." }, { "id": "zhu2014", "title": "Do Dark Pools Harm Price Discovery?", "authors": "Haoxiang Zhu", "journal": "The Review of Financial Studies", "year": 2014, "volumeIssuePages": "27(3),747–789", "doi": "10.1093/rfs/hht078", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/27/3/747/1580317", "authorFinalManuscriptUrl": "https://dspace.mit.edu/entities/publication/08b1b9e9-0b10-4486-a94a-6669b46e4603", "access": "Publisher abstract and MIT author-final-manuscript record read; journal year2014 distinguished from onlineDec2013.", "design": "Theoretical model of informed/uninformed trader sorting between an exchange and a non-displayed venue.", "findingPL": "W modelu, przy określonych warunkach, dark pool może skupiać handel poinformowanych inwestorów na jawnej giełdzie i poprawiać odkrywanie cen, mimo spadku płynności na samej giełdzie.", "limitationPL": "Nie oznacza to empirycznego dowodu, że wszystkie dark poole poprawiają rynek. Wniosek zależy od doboru inwestorów, ryzyka niewykonania i pozostałych założeń modelu.", "articleUsePL": "Przepływ obrotu poza giełdę nie musi oznaczać zaniku funkcji giełdy jako miejsca ustalania ceny odniesienia." } ], "supplementary": [ { "title": "Fragmentation in European Equity Markets since2019", "authors": "Lorenzo Danieli, Raoul Fruzza, Caroline Le Moign", "series": "ESMA Working Paper No.1,2025; ESMA50-524821-3352", "published": "2025-09-17", "url": "https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-09/ESMA50-524821-3352_Working_Paper_Fragmentation_in_European_Equity_Markets_since_2019.pdf", "status": "Official regulatory working paper, not represented as peer-reviewed journal article.", "findingPL": "Analiza danych regulacyjnych2019–2022 pokazuje poBrexicie niższą fragmentację i wyższy udział obrotu na platformach. W stresie rynkowym fragmentacja lekko spadała.", "chartData": { "unit": "percent of share-trading volume", "periods": [ { "label": "2019–2020", "regulatedMarkets": 27, "MTFs": 27, "SIs": 20, "OTC": 26 }, { "label": "2021–2022", "regulatedMarkets": 40, "MTFs": 31, "SIs": 7, "OTC": 22 } ], "warning": "Coverage changes associated with Brexit; EEA focus and loss of UK observations are material. Do not describe as same-scope EU+UK organic growth or extrapolate to2026. RMs+MTFs constitute on-exchange in this source, not RMs alone." } }, { "title": "Trading Volume and Asset Liquidity", "authors": "Marco Pagano", "journal": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics", "year": 1989, "doi": "10.2307/2937847", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/104/2/255/1854625", "status": "Bibliographic identity verified in publisher search result and ESMA bibliography; direct publisher/full-text repository access failed. Avoid detailed claimed full reading. Optional historical citation only." } ], "synthesisPL": "Najbardziej defensywna teza: raczej przetrwają funkcje giełd—organizowanie płynności, odkrywanie cen i nadzór nad zasadami handlu—niż gwarantowanie przetrwania każdego obecnego operatora. Prawdopodobne zmiany to infrastruktura łącząca wiele platform, lepsza automatyzacja, nowe reguły kojarzenia zleceń i silniejszy nacisk na odporność. To wniosek redakcyjny z literatury, nie wynik modelu przewidującego przyszłość.", "avoidClaims": [ "Science proves exchanges will survive forever", "All algorithmic trading is harmful", "Frequent batch auctions already globally adopted", "A2022paper's2015sample is live2026market data", "The17percent liquidity-cost saving was an observed implementation outcome", "More off-exchange volume means price discovery has disappeared", "Scholar was fully reviewed despite the access failures" ], "privateCapitalSupplement": { "title": "The Deregulation of the Private Equity Markets and the Decline in IPOs", "authors": "Michael Ewens, Joan Farre-Mensa", "journal": "The Review of Financial Studies", "year": 2020, "volumeIssuePages": "33(12),5463–5509", "doi": "10.1093/rfs/hhaa053", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/33/12/5463/5835291?login=false", "authorRepositoryUrl": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/3vm47-f4r11", "verifiedFindingPL": "Badania USA wskazują, że liberalizacja zasad finansowania prywatnego poNSMIA1996 zwiększyła dostęp do kapitału dla startupów na późnym etapie, umożliwiając im dłuższe pozostawanie poza giełdą. To jeden z czynników zmieniających bilans korzyści zIPO.", "qualificationPL": "Nie dowodzi, że cały spadek liczby notowanych firm1996–2025 wynika z kapitału prywatnego, ani że jest to światowy proces o jednakowej skali. Odnosi się do startupów i mechanizmu regulacyjnegoUSA; sam wykres liczby spółek nie identyfikuje przyczyny.", "additionalListingGapCitation": { "title": "The U.S. listing gap", "authors": "Craig Doidge, G. Andrew Karolyi, René M. Stulz", "journal": "Journal of Financial Economics", "year": 2017, "volumeIssuePages": "123(3),464–487", "doi": "10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.12.002", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X1630232X", "note": "Publisher bibliographic/abstract search result and author-hosted journal PDF verified; direct publisheropen403. Historical listing decline combines low new lists and acquisition-driven delistings; cannot attribute all decline to private finance." } } }, "statistics": { "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T11:58:22.509284+00:00", "scope": "Primary official statistics for article on future of stock exchanges. Actual annual observations, not forecasts; original source dates retained.", "recommendedCharts": [ { "id": "us-domestic-listed", "titlePl": "USA: mniej spółek giełdowych, nie koniec rynku", "kind": "line", "unit": "companies", "period": "1990–2025, year-end", "universe": "World Bank WDI listed domestic companies, including foreign companies exclusively listed; excludes funds, unit trusts, pure shareholding/investment companies; multiple share classes counted once. Only companies admitted to listing.", "sourceUrl": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LDOM.NO?locations=US", "apiUrl": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA/indicator/CM.MKT.LDOM.NO?format=json&date=1990:2025&per_page=100", "metadataUrl": "https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/CM.MKT.LDOM.NO", "data": { "apiLastUpdated": "2026-10-08", "observations": [ { "year": 1990, "value": 6429, "displayValue": 6429.0 }, { "year": 1991, "value": 6513, "displayValue": 6513.0 }, { "year": 1992, "value": 6562, "displayValue": 6562.0 }, { "year": 1993, "value": 6912, "displayValue": 6912.0 }, { "year": 1994, "value": 7255, "displayValue": 7255.0 }, { "year": 1995, "value": 7487, "displayValue": 7487.0 }, { "year": 1996, "value": 8090, "displayValue": 8090.0 }, { "year": 1997, "value": 7905, "displayValue": 7905.0 }, { "year": 1998, "value": 7499, "displayValue": 7499.0 }, { "year": 1999, "value": 7229, "displayValue": 7229.0 }, { "year": 2000, "value": 6917, "displayValue": 6917.0 }, { "year": 2001, "value": 6177, "displayValue": 6177.0 }, { "year": 2002, "value": 5685, "displayValue": 5685.0 }, { "year": 2003, "value": 5295, "displayValue": 5295.0 }, { "year": 2004, "value": 5226, "displayValue": 5226.0 }, { "year": 2005, "value": 5145, "displayValue": 5145.0 }, { "year": 2006, "value": 5133, "displayValue": 5133.0 }, { "year": 2007, "value": 5109, "displayValue": 5109.0 }, { "year": 2008, "value": 4666, "displayValue": 4666.0 }, { "year": 2009, "value": 4401, "displayValue": 4401.0 }, { "year": 2010, "value": 4279, "displayValue": 4279.0 }, { "year": 2011, "value": 4171, "displayValue": 4171.0 }, { "year": 2012, "value": 4102, "displayValue": 4102.0 }, { "year": 2013, "value": 4180, "displayValue": 4180.0 }, { "year": 2014, "value": 4369, "displayValue": 4369.0 }, { "year": 2015, "value": 4381, "displayValue": 4381.0 }, { "year": 2016, "value": 4331, "displayValue": 4331.0 }, { "year": 2017, "value": 4336, "displayValue": 4336.0 }, { "year": 2018, "value": 4013, "displayValue": 4013.0 }, { "year": 2019, "value": 3910, "displayValue": 3910.0 }, { "year": 2020, "value": 4104, "displayValue": 4104.0 }, { "year": 2021, "value": 4774, "displayValue": 4774.0 }, { "year": 2022, "value": 4642, "displayValue": 4642.0 }, { "year": 2023, "value": 4317, "displayValue": 4317.0 }, { "year": 2024, "value": 4010, "displayValue": 4010.0 }, { "year": 2025, "value": 3908, "displayValue": 3908.0 } ] }, "derived": { "peakYear": 1996, "peakCompanies": 8090, "latestYear": 2025, "latestCompanies": 3908, "changePercentPeakToLatest": -51.69344870210135 }, "caveats": [ "This count is not all securities, all share classes, funds/ETFs, or foreign cross-listings. Do not substitute a different universe from a Nasdaq/exchange investor presentation.", "The decline in issuers alone does not prove decline in market value or identify causes. M&A/delistings and private finance can contribute; causality needs literature.", "WB notes global stock-market source replacement from S&P to WFE in December2015 and possible definitional differences. Use as official published series, not perfect invariant panel." ] }, { "id": "us-offexchange-share", "titlePl": "Akcje notowane na giełdzie coraz częściej zmieniają właściciela poza nią", "kind": "two-series-line-or-grouped-bars", "unit": "percent of trading volume", "period": "February2005 / February2014 / January2026", "universe": "US trading in Nasdaq-listed and NYSE-listed stocks. Off-exchange ATSs/broker-dealers, SDPs/wholesalers; listing location is distinct from execution location.", "publicationDate": "2026-06-11", "sourceUrl": "https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/34-105655.pdf", "federalRegisterUrl": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-17/pdf/2026-12163.pdf", "federalRegisterDate": "2026-06-17", "data": [ { "period": "2005-02", "Nasdaq": 29.4, "NYSE": 13.0 }, { "period": "2014-02", "Nasdaq": 38.6, "NYSE": 34.6 }, { "period": "2026-01", "Nasdaq": 51.9, "NYSE": 47.0 } ], "derived": { "nasdaqChangePercentagePoints2005to2026": 22.5, "nyseChangePercentagePoints2005to2026": 34.0 }, "caveats": [ "Off-exchange does not mean unlisted companies, unregulated activity, or all dark liquidity; hidden orders can also execute on exchanges.", "This is three monthly snapshots, not annual averages and not a continuous full monthly time series.", "Publication is a proposed SEC rule; the statistics can be used as observed data, but do not state the proposed regulatory changes are already final.", "Data source footnote refers to SEC staff2026update of EMSAC2015memo; the actual SEC release quotes all six values directly." ] }, { "id": "wfe-2025-growth", "titlePl": "Publiczne rynki w2025roku nadal rosły", "kind": "horizontal-bars", "unit": "percent change2025versus2024", "period": "calendar2025 versus calendar2024; capitalization year-end stocks, trading/IPO flow full-year", "sourceUrl": "https://www.world-exchanges.org/news/articles/new-wfe-data-public-markets-post-strong-growth-2025-despite-geopolitical-instability", "publicationDate": "2026-02-27", "data": [ { "metric": "Global equity market capitalization", "changePercent": 18.5 }, { "metric": "Trading value", "changePercent": 36.8 }, { "metric": "Number of IPOs", "changePercent": 8.7 }, { "metric": "Capital raised through IPOs", "changePercent": 42.7 } ], "levelFacts": { "globalEquityMarketCap2025TrillionUSD": 151.94, "globalIPOCount2025": 1471, "averageIPO2025MillionUSD": 129.5 }, "caveats": [ "The percentage changes refer to distinct measures: stock values vs activity flows. Keep labels/units explicit; do not sum them.", "WFE broader reporting universe differs from World Bank and OECD; do not splice WFE151.94trn into WDI domestic-company historical series.", "Capitalization increase can reflect prices, FX and coverage as well as new capital. It is not new cash raised by companies." ] } ], "optionalChart": { "id": "world-listed-domestic-marketcap", "titlePl": "Światowa kapitalizacja spółek krajowych", "unit": "currentUSD; divide by1e12 for Polish blnUSD", "sourceUrl": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?locations=1W", "apiUrl": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/WLD/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?format=json&date=2015:2025&per_page=100", "data": { "apiLastUpdated": "2026-10-08", "observations": [ { "year": 2015, "value": 62268183687150.3, "displayValue": 62.2681836871503 }, { "year": 2016, "value": 65117714419402.8, "displayValue": 65.1177144194028 }, { "year": 2017, "value": 79501947538294.8, "displayValue": 79.5019475382948 }, { "year": 2018, "value": 70500698715983.6, "displayValue": 70.50069871598359 }, { "year": 2019, "value": 78670670120000, "displayValue": 78.67067012 }, { "year": 2020, "value": 94968574460000, "displayValue": 94.96857446 }, { "year": 2021, "value": 111052147820000, "displayValue": 111.05214782 }, { "year": 2022, "value": 93539812730000, "displayValue": 93.53981273 }, { "year": 2023, "value": 102946352260000, "displayValue": 102.94635226 }, { "year": 2024, "value": 115086929890000, "displayValue": 115.08692989 }, { "year": 2025, "value": 141297217290000, "displayValue": 141.29721729 } ] }, "caveats": [ "Current-dollar nominal market value, no inflation adjustment; year-end FX. Not cash raised.", "Published aggregate reporting coverage can change. No invariant global listed-company panel claimed.", "Use141.297trn2025from this series, not WFE151.94trn, if choosing this time series." ] }, "additionalContext": [ { "source": "OECD Corporate Governance Factbook2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-corporate-governance-factbook-2025_f4f43735-en/full-report/global-public-markets-and-corporate-ownership_c5012184.html", "observationDate": "2024-12-31", "facts": { "listedCompaniesFigure1_2": 44152, "jurisdictions": 98, "marketCapApproxTrillionUSD": 125, "usMarketCapSharePercentApprox": 50, "asiaMarketCapSharePercent": 27, "asiaCompanyCountSharePercent": 58, "europeMarketCapSharePercent": 13, "usNetListingLossYearsOutOf20Since2005": 18, "europeNetListingLossYearsOutOf20Since2005": 12 }, "note": "OECD firm universe, different from WDI/WFE reporting totals. Net listing losses are not all IPO declines;delistings include mergers. Keep total44152 separate from ownership subsample46086." }, { "source": "OECD Asia Capital Markets Report2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2026/06/asia-capital-markets-report-2026_c2b3e716/full-report.html", "publicationDate": "2026-06-18", "doi": "10.1787/08f87bed-en", "note": "Current report located; search PDFextract said51000companies150trn2025, but not chosen for chart because WDI/WFE give cleaner exact directlyverified series and different universes." } ], "recommendedArticleUse": "Choose US issuer-count chart + SEC off-exchange chart. Use WFE growth bars or WFE2025level facts as optional third graphic. If using WDI globalcap time series, explicitly label WDI universe and do not mix WFE level. Two rigorous charts plus a conceptual illustration may be clearer than three repetitive charts." }, "technology": { "checkedDate": "2026-10-27", "scope": "Primary-source research on tokenisation, settlement speed and extended-hours market structure; no website edits.", "scholarAccess": { "attemptedUrl": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=tokenization+securities+settlement+liquidity+blockchain", "status": "inaccessible via search tool", "consequence": "Do not claim a direct Google Scholar search/result set was read. Papers were verified through primary publishers, central-bank repositories and official bibliographic records." }, "leadConclusion": { "pl": "Najbardziej prawdopodobne jest przetrwanie funkcji giełdy — wspólnego ustalania cen, dostępu do kapitału, nadzoru i obsługi praw własności — przy zmianie jej technologii i podmiotów wykonujących poszczególne funkcje. To wniosek redakcyjny, nie prognoza z jednego badania.", "en": "The likely survival is of exchange functions, even if venue operators and technologies change; identify this as editorial inference rather than one paper's prediction." }, "sources": [ { "id": "bis-aer-2025-tokenisation", "title": "III. The next-generation monetary and financial system", "author": "Bank for International Settlements", "publication": "Annual Economic Report 2025, Chapter III", "year": 2025, "type": "Official analytical policy report; not peer-reviewed empirical stock-exchange research", "url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2025e3.htm", "canonicalUrl": "https://www.bis.org/publications/aer-2025/next-generation-monetary-financial-system", "access": "HTML read", "finding": "Programmable infrastructure may integrate messaging, reconciliation, asset transfers and contingent delivery-versus-payment. The proposed unified ledger may or may not use distributed ledger technology; central-bank reserves, bank money and government bonds remain central.", "limitation": "A normative institutional blueprint and potential benefits, not proof that blockchain always lowers trading costs or removes intermediaries.", "suggestedUsePL": "Tokenizacja może uprościć infrastrukturę, lecz nie wymaga usunięcia banków centralnych, pieniędzy bankowych ani nadzoru." }, { "id": "ecb-tokenised-bonds-2026", "title": "Tokenised bonds: assessing efficiency and liquidity in a nascent market", "authors": [ "Alexandra Born", "Johanne Evrard", "Claudia Lambert", "Wagner Eduardo Schuster", "Anna Tskhakaya" ], "publication": "ECB Macroprudential Bulletin No. 33, April 2026", "publicationDate": "2026-04-13", "type": "Original empirical central-bank research article, observational matched comparison; not a peer-reviewed journal article", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202604_03.en.html", "access": "HTML article, methodology and tables read", "finding": "A nascent, predominantly European bond sample shows lower issuance yield spreads and narrower bid-ask spreads for tokenised instruments, but no statistically significant reduction in underwriting fees.", "quantitative": [ { "metric": "Yield spread at issuance, tokenised minus matched conventional", "value": -0.14, "unit": "percentage points", "relativeDifferencePercent": -40, "significance": "5% Wilcoxon signed-rank test", "subsample": "23 tokenised bonds, 49 conventional bonds, 58 matches" }, { "metric": "Underwriting fees, tokenised minus matched conventional", "value": 0.04, "unit": "percentage points", "significance": "not statistically significant", "subsample": "22 tokenised bonds, 54 matches" }, { "metric": "Full-controls tokenised coefficient on bid-ask spread", "value": -0.0513, "standardError": 0.0221, "unit": "percentage points", "relativeDifferencePercentApprox": -27, "significance": "5%", "observations": 43902, "period": "2022–25" }, { "metric": "Main matched input sample", "tokenisedBonds": 41, "conventionalBonds": 546 }, { "metric": "Retail-accessible tokenised subset", "bonds": 3, "note": "Too small to generalise; this subset has higher spreads rather than the broad sample improvement." } ], "limitation": "Matching cannot rule out all selection effects. Small, non-random, Europe-heavy bond sample; not an estimate for all securities or stock exchanges. Main matched input differs from the smaller issuance subsample. Avoid converting pp to percentages incorrectly.", "suggestedUsePL": "Badanie EBC wskazuje potencjał poprawy płynności, lecz nie daje podstaw do tezy, że tokenizacja automatycznie obniża wszystkie koszty lub likwiduje giełdy." }, { "id": "capponi-chang-settlement-2026", "title": "Settlement Speed and Financial Stability", "authors": [ "Agostino Capponi", "Jin-Wook Chang" ], "publication": "Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-101r1, Federal Reserve Board", "originalDate": "2025-11", "revisionDate": "2026-06-05", "doi": "10.17016/FEDS.2025.101r1", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/settlement-speed-and-financial-stability.htm", "pdfUrl": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2025101r1pap.pdf", "access": "Official abstract and full PDF introductory/conclusion/model excerpts read", "type": "Theoretical working paper, preliminary, not peer-reviewed or Fed policy", "finding": "Faster settlement reduces exposure time and may lower crisis likelihood, yet reduces netting opportunities and increases liquidity costs; conditional crisis severity may increase. The model's optimal speed depends on the payment network and funding conditions.", "limitation": "Model-based systemic-stress result, not a universal empirical estimate of T+0 effects. It is not a claim that ordinary T+1 adoption has failed.", "suggestedUsePL": "T+0 nie jest darmowym ulepszeniem: mniejsze ryzyko kontrahenta może kosztować więcej płynności i wymagać wcześniejszego finansowania." }, { "id": "sec-tplus1", "title": "SEC Chair Gensler Statement on Upcoming Implementation of T+1 Settlement Cycle", "author": "U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "publicationDate": "2024-05-21", "effectiveDate": "2024-05-28", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-62", "faqUrl": "https://www.sec.gov/exams/educationhelpguidesfaqs/t1-faq", "access": "Official press release and indexed FAQ read", "type": "Official primary regulatory statement", "finding": "Most broker-dealer transactions covered by the rule shifted from T+2 to T+1 with compliance date28 May2024. The rule does not mean every security/transaction in all jurisdictions settles T+1.", "quantitative": [ { "metric": "Standard settlement lag", "old": 2, "new": 1, "unit": "business days after trade", "effectiveDate": "2024-05-28" } ], "limitation": "T+1 means next business day, not24hours; T+0/same-day and atomic/immediate settlement are different concepts. Exemptions exist." }, { "id": "nyse-tokenised-proposal-2026", "title": "The New York Stock Exchange Develops Tokenized Securities Platform", "author": "Intercontinental Exchange / NYSE", "publicationDate": "2026-01-19", "url": "https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/The-New-York-Stock-Exchange-Develops-Tokenized-Securities-Platform/default.aspx", "access": "Official issuer press release read", "type": "Corporate primary announcement; forward-looking commercial statements", "finding": "NYSE announced development of a tokenised platform targeting24/7 operations, instant settlement, dollar-sized orders and stablecoin funding, combining its matching engine with blockchain post-trade systems. The release explicitly states regulatory approval conditions and shareholder dividend/governance rights.", "limitation": "An announcement is not proof of operational rollout or market-wide adoption. Do not say NYSE's entire conventional exchange already runs24/7 from this source." }, { "id": "sec-innovation-exemption-2026", "title": "SEC Issues “Innovation Exemption” to Facilitate the Trading of Tokenized NMS Stock and Request for Comment", "author": "U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "publicationDate": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-90-sec-issues-innovation-exemption-facilitate-trading-tokenized-nms-stock-request-comment", "access": "Official full press release read", "type": "Official primary regulatory announcement; legal details should reference underlying order if required", "finding": "The SEC granted temporary conditional relief for Tokenized Securities Venues using permissioned AMM liquidity pools to trade tokenised NMS stock. Conditions include symbol/volume limits, equivalent shareholder rights, issuer notice/opportunity to object, auditable public smart contracts and halts aligned with the primary listing exchange.", "quantitative": [ { "metric": "Temporary exemption duration", "value": 5, "unit": "years after publication", "notFromAnnouncementDay": true } ], "limitation": "Not unrestricted deregulation, not proof all tokenised products confer shares, and not approval of every individual platform. Do not conflate this general exemption with NYSE's separate launch approval." }, { "id": "sec-nasdaq-extended-hours-2026", "title": "Notice of Filing of Amendment Nos. 2 and 3 and Order Granting Accelerated Approval ... to Extend the Exchange’s Trading Hours to 23 Hours a Day, Five Days a Week", "author": "U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "publicationDate": "2026-04-10", "release": "34-105199", "file": "SR-NASDAQ-2025-109", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/rule-release/34-105199", "access": "Official approval landing page read", "type": "Official rule-approval record", "finding": "The SEC approved Nasdaq's rule change for23-hour days, five days perweek.", "quantitative": [ { "metric": "Approved trading-hours framework", "hoursPerDay": 23, "daysPerWeek": 5 } ], "limitation": "This proves rule approval; the retrieved record alone does not establish a fully operational launch date.23×5 is not24/7." }, { "id": "schaer-defi-2021", "title": "Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets", "author": "Fabian Schär", "publication": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review103(2),153–174", "publicationDate": "2021-04-15", "doi": "10.20955/r.103.153-74", "url": "https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.153-74", "bibliographyUrl": "https://www.fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/91428", "universityUrl": "https://edoc.unibas.ch/entities/publication/e515b6dd-94a3-4295-a9e5-8034914eaae6", "access": "Primary publisher indexed abstract/PDF excerpt and author university bibliographic record; old PDF URL now redirects to publications page", "type": "Published research survey article", "finding": "Smart-contract protocols replicate familiar financial services and offer composability/transparency; risks include code exploits, external-data dependencies, operational keys and concentrated governance.", "limitation": "A2021 framework, not2026 adoption statistics. Do not describe the current ecosystem as niche solely because this2021 paper used that characterization." } ], "supplementaryIndexedOnly": [ { "id": "iosco-tokenisation-2025", "title": "Tokenization of Financial Assets", "publication": "IOSCO Final Report FR/17/2025", "date": "2025-11-11", "url": "https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD809.pdf", "releaseUrl": "https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS778.pdf", "access": "Official search-indexed text available; direct PDFs returned403, not full-report read", "findings": "Interoperability, credible settlement assets and transition costs constrain scale; atomic settlement can require pre-positioning cash/assets; cyber/operational/custody and correlated-liquidity risks remain.", "recommendation": "Use as supporting context only or omit in favor of fully accessible BIS/ECB/Fed sources." } ], "distinctions": [ "Exchange economic functions are not identical to a particular exchange's legal definition or corporate survival.", "24/7 quotation/execution, T+1 settlement, same-dayT+0 and atomic immediate settlement describe different dimensions.", "Tokenising a claim does not by itself guarantee underlying shareholder rights, legal finality, security or liquidity.", "Exchange operators may integrate tokenisation and remain important rather than being mechanically eliminated by it.", "A theoretical scenario or corporate plan must not be charted as a measured adoption forecast." ], "illustrationIdea": { "type": "Exact conceptual SVG drawn in website code", "descriptionPL": "Trzy poziomy: funkcje pozostające potrzebne (kapitał, cena/płynność, prawa/nadzór); ewoluująca infrastruktura (księga zleceń + alternatywne miejsca obrotu, rozrachunekT+1/atomowy, dane/AI); warunki działania (zaufanie, bezpieczne pieniądze rozrachunkowe, odporność). Oznacz scenariusz/koncepcję, nie prognozę liczbową." } }, "aiIllustration": { "file": "/images/future-stock-exchanges-2026-10-27.webp", "mode": "Built-in image generation", "classification": "Conceptual artwork, not evidence, a real-venue photograph or a forecast", "prompt": "Editorial architectural collage connecting a classical exchange facade with transparent digital trading and secure settlement infrastructure; silver, pearl and graphite, restrained blue, no text, figures, charts or logos." }, "computedChecks": { "usPeakTo2025ChangePct": -51.69344870210135, "nasdaqOffExchangeChangePp": 22.5, "nyseOffExchangeChangePp": 34 }, "additionalReferences": [ { "title": "The Financial Stability Implications of Artificial Intelligence", "author": "Financial Stability Board", "publicationDate": "2024-11-14", "url": "https://www.fsb.org/2024/11/the-financial-stability-implications-of-artificial-intelligence/", "type": "Official analytical report", "finding": "AI can support operations and supervision; common models, service-provider concentration, cyber and governance risks can increase systemic vulnerabilities." }, { "title": "Extended-Hours Trading: Investor Bulletin", "author": "SEC Office of Investor Education and Advocacy", "publicationDate": "2022-06-06", "url": "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-42", "type": "Official investor education bulletin", "usedFor": "Liquidity and spreads may be worse outside regular hours; historical operational-rule details are not represented as current2026 rules." } ] }