MARKETS / PARTICIPANT EXPECTATIONS

Polymarkets Bets

Event prices, changes over time and trading activity — Polymarket™ data with economic context.

Source retrieved for every topic

Data are checked on opening and on request. Responses may be cached for up to 5 minutes. The initial view uses the latest verified saved observations, dated for each event.

Monitored open contracts306 economic topics · WMA selection

Comparisons cover this selected set only. An implied Yes of 60% means a USD 0.60 price, not a certain outcome. Select an overview card to inspect its chart.

Choose an event

Calendar year 2026

Fed: rate cuts in 2026

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Source & rules

Source observation01 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC

Total event volume53,753,649 USD

Event volume · 24h98,052 USD

Event liquidity4,119,999 USD

Choose a scenario

Scenarios describe different outcomes, not a forecast for a single policy meeting.

Scenario comparison

Select a bar to inspect the contract history.

Each bar is a separate contract. < and > indicate a bound, not an exact observation.

SELECTED CONTRACT

0 (0 bps)

96.8%Implied Yes

Contract volume · 24h: 25,410 USD
Yes bid/ask spread: 0.1 pp
Metadata end time: 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC

How has the price changed?

Yes price history · 0–100% scale

01 Sept 2026, 21:0001 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC

01 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC96.8%

Change over shown period: +7.8 pp
Sample min. / max.: 88.6% / 97.5%
Source observations: 717No gap filling

Source: Polymarket CLOB, hourly sampling. Missing intervals remain gaps. History and the current price can have different observation times. Retrieved: 01 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC.

Change in implied Yes

Percentage points · separate source windows

24 hours+0.2

7 days-0.2

30 days+7.8

— means unavailable. Windows overlap; changes must not be added.

How far apart are quotes?

Best Yes bid and ask

Bid 96.7¢Ask 96.8¢

0¢50¢100¢

Spread 0.1 pp

A wider spread means a larger gap between quotes. The highlighted interval is not a confidence interval.

Economic context and limitations

This event describes rate-cut scenarios in units of 25 basis points. It answers a different question from a forecast for one policy meeting. Changes in these scenarios can complement analysis of bonds, the dollar and financing costs, but do not determine any asset's future price.

Zero cuts does not mean unchanged rates: increases are also possible. A 25 bp unit need not equal one policy meeting. The contract rules define the counting method. A limited fallback snapshot may cover only some scenarios; separate contract prices need not sum to exactly 100%.

Data table and exact values (13)

Fed: rate cuts in 2026 — prices, volume and changes
Implied Yes	Contract volume	24h change
96.8%	8,709,734 USD	+0.2 pp
1.8%	3,438,345 USD	+0.2 pp
1%	3,359,046 USD	+0.4 pp
0.4%	2,944,694 USD	+0.05 pp
0.3%	2,742,508 USD	+0.1 pp
0.1%	3,002,962 USD	-0.05 pp
<0.1%	4,225,100 USD	—
<0.1%	3,526,890 USD	—
<0.1%	3,296,969 USD	—
<0.1%	4,296,814 USD	—
<0.1%	4,957,184 USD	—
<0.1%	5,272,154 USD	—
<0.1%	3,981,249 USD	—

The implied price comes from outcomePrices for Yes, displayed to at most one decimal place.

Contract details, dates and source

SELECTED CONTRACT DETAILS

0 (0 bps)

96.8%

Change · 24h: +0.2 pp
Change · 7 days: -0.2 pp
Change · 30 days: +7.8 pp
Volume · 24h: 25,410 USD
Contract liquidity: 609,513 USD
Yes spread: 0.1 pp

Best bid / ask: 96.7 / 96.8 ¢. These are quoted prices, not a probability confidence interval.

Contract metadata end time: 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC. This need not be the time a resolution is published.

The contract’s event definition, deadline and designated source determine resolution. Read the rules on Polymarket

Record update reported by the source: 01 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC. This is record metadata, not a verified last-trade time.

Where is trading activity concentrated?

Six selected events, not the entire platform.

Volume measures trading activity, not forecast accuracy. Each event retains its own retrieval time.

METHODOLOGY / HOW TO READ THE DATA

How to read the data

Price and probability

A Yes price of 0.60 corresponds to a 60% implied chance against a nominal payout of 1 if the condition is met. It is neither 60% certainty nor a representative poll. Participant selection, concentrated capital, liquidity and rule interpretation can distort the signal.

Polymarket says its displayed percentage usually uses the midpoint of the best bid and ask. If the spread exceeds USD 0.10, it uses the last traded price. The Buy Yes quote can therefore differ. The snapshot uses the displayed scenario percentage; API observations use outcomePrices.

Polymarket’s price display method

Volume, liquidity and spread

Volume is source-reported transaction value in USD, not a count of people or net new capital. The same position may change hands repeatedly. Total event volume can include contracts absent from the selected view.

Liquidity is a separate measure reported by Polymarket. It does not guarantee execution at the displayed price. Spread is the difference between the best ask and bid; USD 0.03 equals 3 percentage points on the implied-price scale. High volume does not remove manipulation or resolution risk.

Changes and price history

Price changes are shown in percentage points: moving from 40% to 45% is +5 pp, not +5%. The 24h, 7-day and 30-day windows come from source fields; the price-history chart uses the separate CLOB API with hourly sampling. Gaps longer than three hours break the line. Missing values mean missing data, not zero.

Each event has its own observation date and source link. Failures retain the previous date. Closed events are marked historical. A dated snapshot does not prove a contract is still active. Out-of-range prices, incomplete Yes/No pairs and unsupported contract types are rejected.

Interpretation limits

This is a curated set of economically relevant topics, not a ranking of all Polymarket events. We do not calculate an average ‘market probability’, add overlapping scenarios or attach confidence intervals without a statistical basis.

A contract’s rules and specified resolution source determine its outcome. The commentary is World Market Atlas editorial interpretation. We do not reproduce Polymarket’s automated summaries as verified news about the world.

Documentation and sourcesPolymarket · Gamma API Polymarket · market data fields Polymarket · price history

Loading the selected section…

Buy a student a coffee

Help grow World Market Atlas — a student project for individual investors. Every contribution counts.

Scenario / deadline

Implied Yes

Contract volume

24h change

96.8%

8,709,734 USD

+0.2 pp

1.8%

3,438,345 USD

+0.2 pp

3,359,046 USD

+0.4 pp

0.4%

2,944,694 USD

+0.05 pp

0.3%

2,742,508 USD

+0.1 pp

0.1%

3,002,962 USD

-0.05 pp

<0.1%

4,225,100 USD

—

<0.1%

3,526,890 USD

—

<0.1%

3,296,969 USD

—

<0.1%

4,296,814 USD

—

<0.1%

4,957,184 USD

—

<0.1%

5,272,154 USD

—

<0.1%

3,981,249 USD

—

How to read the data

Price and probability

Polymarket’s price display method

Volume, liquidity and spread

Changes and price history

Interpretation limits

Polymarkets Bets

Before you read the statistics

Fed: rate cuts in 2026

Choose a scenario

Scenario comparison

0 (0 bps)

How has the price changed?

Change in implied Yes

How far apart are quotes?

0 (0 bps)

Where is trading activity concentrated?

How to read the data

Buy a student a coffee

Polymarkets Bets

Before you read the statistics

Fed: rate cuts in 2026

Choose a scenario

Scenario comparison

0 (0 bps)

How has the price changed?

Change in implied Yes

How far apart are quotes?

0 (0 bps)

Where is trading activity concentrated?

How to read the data