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Debt markets: who is borrowing, and how much?
Sources reviewed 29 October 2026. US, European and Japanese data: Q2 2026; China: January–September 2026; IMF aggregate: 2024. OECD projections for 2026 are labelled and are not full-year outcomes. One trillion = 1,000 billion.
Debt markets face growing funding needs and a growing need to replace existing obligations. The OECD projects about USD 29 trillion of sovereign and corporate bond borrowing in 2026, compared with about USD 27 trillion in 2025. These are gross amounts, including bonds issued to repay maturing securities. They do not mean debt stocks will increase by USD 29 trillion. OECD · Global Debt Report 2026
1. Debt already outstanding versus money to be raised
The IMF provides a historical reference of USD 251 trillion in nonfinancial-sector debt in 2024: USD 99.2 trillion public and USD 151.8 trillion private. This is an annual observation for 2024, not a live reading for 29 October 2026; financial-sector debt is excluded. IMF · 17 September 2025
The narrower OECD survey estimates central government marketable debt in OECD countries at USD 61 trillion at end-2025. Gross borrowing was approximately USD 17 trillion, comprising USD 13.5 trillion of refinancing and USD 3.5 trillion of net borrowing. For 2026, it projects approximately USD 18 trillion of gross borrowing, with 78% used for refinancing. This projection was prepared as of December 2025 and published in March 2026; it is not a full-year outcome. OECD · chapter 1
The mechanism is simple: replacing a maturing bond with principal of 100 by issuing a new bond for 100 generates gross borrowing of 100 without increasing principal outstanding. A higher coupon can nevertheless raise interest costs. Large gross issuance also indicates dependence on continued market access.
2. United States: who owes USD 84.1 trillion?
Federal Reserve figures put US domestic nonfinancial debt at USD 84.1 trillion at end-Q2 2026, up from USD 81.8 trillion at end-2025. These seasonally adjusted data cover debt securities and loans. Federal Reserve · Z.1 · table 3 · 11 September 2026
WMA calculated changes from rounded stocks. They do not precisely measure new lending or net issuance. The federal figure in the Financial Accounts is not the same statistic as Treasury's total gross federal debt. Differences in definitions help explain different US debt figures across publications.
3. Europe and Poland: the amounts behind debt growth
Eurostat reported EUR 15.951 trillion in EU general government gross debt at end-June 2026, EUR 243.286 billion more than in the preceding quarter. These are provisional Maastricht-definition figures. The changes below are WMA subtractions of stocks in the same table. Eurostat · 21 October 2026
Debt-stock changes can differ from fiscal deficits because of cash movements and other stock-flow adjustments. No zloty-to-euro conversion is used here. Poland is already included in the EU aggregate.
Poland's Ministry of Finance separately reports PLN 2,147.8 billion in public debt under the domestic definition. That coverage differs from EU EDP debt; the figures are not interchangeable. Polish Ministry of Finance · Q2 2026
4. China and Japan: different sources of pressure
In China, yuan loans to enterprises and institutions increased by CNY 12.55 trillion in January–September 2026, while loans to households fell by CNY 1.03 trillion. The institution category also includes government organs and groups. Separately, net government-bond financing was CNY 10.30 trillion, and net corporate-bond financing was CNY 2.75 trillion. These are different instruments and borrower scopes, so they are not added into a single sector total.
Government bonds outstanding at end-September were CNY 105.23 trillion; corporate bonds were CNY 36.62 trillion. The frequently cited CNY 468.17 trillion aggregate financing stock also includes equity and is not pure debt. Figures are preliminary. The source is the PBOC report reproduced by Shanghai's municipal financial authorities. PBOC · official reproduction · 15 October 2026
Japan's Ministry of Finance reported JPY 1,346.6833 trillion in central government debt at 30 June 2026, up JPY 2.8407 trillion over the quarter. WMA converts the source's units of JPY 100 million to trillions by dividing by 10,000. Coverage includes general and special accounts and intragovernmental holdings; it differs from SNA definitions. Government guarantees are reported separately. Japanese Ministry of Finance · 10 August 2026
5. Companies: refinancing and AI infrastructure
The OECD estimates that financial and nonfinancial companies raised approximately USD 13.7 trillion in bond and syndicated-loan markets in 2025. Its separately rounded components are USD 6.8 trillion and USD 7.0 trillion, which do not add precisely to the aggregate. The stock of these instruments was USD 59.5 trillion: USD 36.4 trillion in bonds and USD 23.1 trillion in syndicated loans. This coverage differs from the IMF's private nonfinancial debt. OECD · chapter 2
Specific examples show the scale of funding:
Alphabet · issuer report filed with SEC · Meta · SEC debt note · Oracle · FY2026 results
These amounts are not summed: periods and measures differ. Nor is all funding attributed exclusively to AI. Alphabet states general corporate purposes; Oracle connects its capital programme with cloud-infrastructure expansion.
6. What does this mean for markets?
WMA interpretation: pressure comes from the combination of large government needs, refinancing and corporate investment. The OECD describes issuance shifting towards shorter maturities in response to long-term funding costs, and a larger role for price-sensitive investors as central banks reduce their holdings. That can increase market sensitivity to shocks. OECD · market overview
This does not automatically imply a crisis or guarantee rising yields. Assessing an issuer requires cash flows, the currency of its obligations, maturity schedules and the amount that must soon be refinanced. A high coupon is compensation for risk, not a guarantee of a safe return.
Method: information cutoff is 29 October 2026. Every amount retains its own period and scope; projections are not observations. Missing data have not been estimated. Sources are public institutions, the OECD, IMF and issuer reports. Chart data, definitions and WMA calculations
Gallus Herodicus · 29 October 2026. Information and education; not an investment recommendation.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.