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Through 30 September 2026 · HKD · price return and gross total return with dividends reinvested, before investor taxes and costs.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Price index | -3.97% |
| Gross total return | -1.38% |
January–September comparison. Separate scales; bars start at zero. Turnover covers the Main Board and GEM securities market, not just equities. Comparators from HKEX’s September 2026 report.
| Measure | January–September 2025 | January–September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| IPO fundraising | 188.3 | 388.0 |
| Average daily turnover | 256.4 | 272.9 |
WMA schematic based on HKEX rules. Arrows indicate directions of access, not flow volumes. Access is restricted to eligible securities and investors.
Mainland Chinese investors
Hong Kong-listed shares
International investors via Hong Kong
A-shares · Shanghai and Shenzhen
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Southbound | Mainland Chinese investors → Hong Kong-listed shares |
| Northbound | International investors via Hong Kong → A-shares · Shanghai and Shenzhen |
Market commentary
My perspective on markets, the economy and events that matter to investors.
Hong Kong: an IPO boom and a stock market shaped by China
27 October 2026 · Exchange and index data: 30 September 2026 or January–September 2026. SFC Stock Connect figures: Q2 2026. A dated review, not live quotes.
Hong Kong is attracting new share issues: IPO fundraising reached HK$388.0 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Yet the Hang Seng lost 3.97% year to date through September. Issuance activity and investor returns are separate outcomes. HKEX · September 2026 · Hang Seng Indexes · factsheet
1. An international exchange with substantial China exposure
At the end of September, 2,772 companies were listed on the Main Board and GEM, with market capitalisation of about HK$45.48 trillion. Mainland enterprises represented 77.3% of market capitalisation and 88.8% of September equity turnover. A broad Hong Kong portfolio therefore provides substantial exposure to Chinese businesses beyond the city's domestic economy. HKEX · market statistics
2. What does the Hang Seng measure?
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) contained 95 large, liquid stocks. On 30 September, its P/E was 13.79 and its dividend yield 2.97%. HSBC, Tencent and Alibaba together represented about 24.1% of the index, a WMA calculation from published weights. Despite its many constituents, a few large companies matter substantially to its performance.
The HSI price index lost 3.97% year to date, while the gross total return version lost 1.38%. The difference illustrates the contribution of dividends. Gross returns exclude individual investor taxes and costs; PLN returns also depend on exchange rates. P/E and historical dividend yield describe the index; they promise neither future returns nor undervaluation. Hang Seng Indexes · data at 30 September 2026
3. IPO fundraising is growing faster than turnover
January–September IPO fundraising rose from HK$188.3 billion in 2025 to HK$388.0 billion in 2026, an increase of about 106%. Average daily turnover across the securities market increased much less, from HK$256.4 billion to HK$272.9 billion, or about 6%. New issues help businesses raise capital; successful fundraising does not guarantee rising share prices after listing. HKEX · first-nine-month comparison
4. Stock Connect: two directions of access
The programme links Hong Kong with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Southbound allows eligible Mainland investors to buy eligible Hong Kong securities; Northbound gives investors access through Hong Kong to eligible Mainland A-shares. These are distinct access channels, rather than a single shared market. HKEX · Stock Connect
According to the SFC, daily Southbound trading represented 22% of Hong Kong market turnover in Q2 2026, while cumulative net inflows since launch exceeded HK$5.4 trillion. Net inflows and turnover are different measures; these June observations are not October readings. SFC · report published 26 August 2026
5. What should readers monitor?
The evidence suggests watching the earnings of major Chinese issuers, index concentration, the durability of Southbound inflows and the quality of new listings. These are WMA analytical conclusions, not a forecast of market direction. Rising IPO fundraising alone cannot establish whether shares offer attractive prices relative to future cash flows.
The IMF also identifies risks from geopolitical tensions, tighter financial conditions and a weaker technology cycle. Commercial real estate and its links to banks remain a local vulnerability. These are risk factors, not a predetermined market decline. IMF · Article IV consultation, 22 May 2026
Currency also matters. The HKMA mechanism links the HKD to the USD within a 7.75–7.85 HKD per USD band and influences local interest rates through liquidity. It does not stabilise share prices or returns in PLN. Polish investors remain exposed to changes in the HKD's value against the PLN. HKMA · exchange-rate mechanism
Method and limitations. Charts compare matching periods. Turnover covers the Main Board and GEM, including securities other than ordinary shares. The 2025 IPO comparator comes from HKEX's September 2026 report; an earlier edition reported a different amount. All monetary figures in this article are in HKD. Educational commentary, not investment advice.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.