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Equities: market capitalisation of listed domestic companies. Debt: outstanding corporate and government debt securities, excluding bank loans. Market-cap growth is not an investor return: issuance, currencies and market coverage also affect it. The chart illustrates the scale of two different types of instrument.
| Year | Equities | Debt securities |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 109.1773 | 127.9737 |
| 2021 | 124.6007 | 132.9222 |
| 2022 | 104.9297 | 133.6595 |
| 2023 | 120.9181 | 141.8444 |
| 2024 | 132.6553 | 145.3083 |
| 2025 | 157.7709 | 160.7041 |
The 10 weights sum to 24.27%. These are 10 security positions, not 10 distinct companies: Alphabet has two share classes. MSCI ACWI does not cover the entire global equity market. The three largest positions appear below; the table contains all ten.
| Security | Weight |
|---|---|
| Apple | 5.02% |
| Nvidia | 4.66% |
| Microsoft | 3.65% |
| Amazon | 2.31% |
| TSMC | 1.78% |
| Alphabet A | 1.63% |
| Broadcom | 1.46% |
| Meta | 1.34% |
| Alphabet C | 1.29% |
| Tesla | 1.13% |
Final BIS data published in June 2026. Every trade involves two currencies, so the shares of all currencies sum to 200%, not 100%. The five selected currencies are not exhaustive. This is neither the dollar's reserve share nor an investment return.
| Currency | Turnover · USD million/day | Share |
|---|---|---|
| USD | 8,471,519 | 89.1% |
| EUR | 2,714,074 | 28.5% |
| JPY | 1,608,341 | 16.9% |
| GBP | 966,558 | 10.2% |
| CNY | 817,467 | 8.6% |
Historical US index returns with income reinvested. Figures are geometric annualised rates for the entire 1900-2025 period; they do not imply gains in every year. Historical data, not a forecast. Original presentation based on Figure 12, page 7.
| Asset class | Nominal | After inflation |
|---|---|---|
| Equities | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| Long bonds | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Treasury bills | 3.4% | 0.5% |
Market commentary
My perspective on markets, the economy and events that matter to investors.
Markets in four charts: scale, the dollar, concentration and inflation
Sources reviewed on 4 November 2026. SIFMA: 2020–2025; MSCI: 30 October 2026; BIS: April 2025, final June 2026 data; UBS: USA, 1900–2025. Original charts based on published data; our calculations are identified.
Index records alone do not explain how markets work. Four snapshots reveal market scale, concentration, the dollar’s role and the difference between an account gain and an increase in purchasing power.
1. Debt securities exceed the equity market
At the end of 2025, global debt securities outstanding reached USD 160.7 trillion, against USD 157.8 trillion in listed equity market capitalization. SIFMA reports year-on-year increases of 10.6% and 18.9%, respectively. Debt here covers securities issued by governments and companies, not every loan worldwide. SIFMA 2026
Market-cap growth is not the same as an investor’s return: share issuance, exchange rates and data coverage also affect it. Select a year in the chart to compare the two markets.
2. Thousands of constituents, substantial weight in a few giants
The MSCI ACWI had 2,413 constituents on 30 October 2026. The ten largest security lines carried a combined 24.27% weight, while representing only about 0.4% of the constituent count. These are our calculations from MSCI’s rounded weights. MSCI
A broad index does not necessarily distribute risk evenly. Its largest positions still matter greatly. These are ten security lines, not ten distinct companies: Alphabet appears in two share classes. ACWI covers large and mid-sized companies in developed and emerging markets, rather than every company worldwide.
3. The dollar is on one side of almost 90% of FX turnover
Average daily over-the-counter foreign-exchange turnover in April 2025 was approximately USD 9.5 trillion. The dollar appeared on one side of 89.1% of turnover, according to our calculations from the final BIS tables published in June 2026. This is a survey-month observation, not a live November reading. BIS
All currency shares sum to 200%, because every transaction involves two currencies. Turnover measures repeated transactions, including derivatives; it does not show currency reserves or the stock of dollars held.
4. Inflation changes what a gain means
In UBS’s data for the USA over 1900–2025, equities returned an annualised 9.8% in nominal terms, versus 6.6% after inflation. Real returns on long bonds and Treasury bills were 1.6% and 0.5% a year, respectively. UBS / Dimson, Marsh and Staunton
These are historical geometric total returns with reinvested distributions, not a promise of future gains or a result achieved in every year. The comparison shows why purchasing power matters. An investor’s own costs and taxes also affect the outcome.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.