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My perspective on markets, the economy and events that matter to investors.
To whoever has, more will be given: the Matthew effect and the K-shaped economy
Commentary dated 14 October 2026. The empirical data concern the United States and the 2022 and 2025 Surveys of Consumer Finances (SCF); wealth amounts are adjusted for inflation. Applying the quotation to economics and the concluding observations are the author's interpretation.
‘For to whoever has, more will be given, and they will have an abundance; but from whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken away.’ — Matthew 13:12, translated from the Polish Biblia Tysiąclecia.
1. A Gospel metaphor for accumulating advantages
In the original context, Jesus explains to his disciples the purpose of parables and the understanding of his teaching about the kingdom of heaven. The economic reading is a modern analogy. A similar statement appears in Matthew 25:29, in the parable of the talents; the quotation is not a moral justification for taking resources from the poor.
In 1968, sociologist Robert K. Merton named the Matthew effect: a mechanism through which established scientists receive a disproportionate share of recognition for their achievements. In the economic analogy, existing capital, knowledge and connections can make it easier to acquire further resources. An asset owner can reinvest income, while someone without savings more often has to devote current earnings to living costs and debt payments. An advantage can accumulate, although it does not guarantee success.
Sources: the context of Matthew 13, Matthew 25, Merton, ‘The Matthew Effect in Science’.
2. The K-shaped economy
A K-shaped economy illustrates diverging paths: some groups' circumstances improve while others' deteriorate; in looser usage, it also describes markedly different rates of improvement. Rising asset prices can strengthen their owners' position, while a higher cost of living reduces less affluent people's ability to save. This is how the accumulation of advantages can intensify.
New York Fed researchers found that, since 2023, real wealth had risen most strongly among high-income groups, while low-income groups experienced higher inflation because their spending baskets differed. This helps explain differences in the growth of real retail spending.
The latest Fed survey provides a telling US example: between 2022 and 2025, median net worth among the bottom 25% of families ranked by wealth fell from USD 3,800 to USD 1,700, while among the top 10% it rose from approximately USD 4.15 million to USD 4.94 million. The amounts are adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2025 dollars. We are comparing groups across successive surveys, not following the same families over time.
Perspective matters, however: the Fed concludes that overall wealth inequality changed little. Two medians do not establish that every measure of inequality is rising. The Richmond Fed also emphasises the importance of the period and the indicator — wealth, income and consumption can present different pictures of the economy.
Sources: New York Fed, May 2026, Fed, SCF 2022–2025, Table 2, Richmond Fed, July 2026.
3. What does this mean for investors and society?
My assessment: a strong stock market can coexist with difficult conditions for some customers. When analysing a company, it is worth checking whom it sells to, which incomes underpin demand for its products and whether price increases make those products less accessible.
The accumulation of advantages is not an inevitable outcome. Education, competition, opportunities to save and access to reasonably priced financing can broaden participation in growth. I read the Gospel quotation as a starting point for reflection on the responsible use of resources — including how economic development can give more people a chance to move onto the upward branch of the K.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.