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USD NAV total return, with distributions reinvested. As of 30 September 2026. September is part of Q3; the periods must not be added.
| Fund / metric | Q3 2026 (%) | September 2026 (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCLD | +26.65% | -5.98% | WisdomTree · WCLD |
| IGV | +17.46% | -3.38% | iShares · IGV |
Year-over-year change (%). Revenue covers Q3; current cloud backlog is contracted future revenue at quarter-end. Categories partly overlap and cannot be added.
| Fund / metric | Reported (%) | Constant currencies (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud revenue | +26% | +25% | SAP · Q3 2026 |
| Cloud ERP Suite | +29% | +28% | SAP · Q3 2026 |
| Current cloud backlog | +28% | +26% | SAP · Q3 2026 |
Market commentary
My perspective on markets, the economy and events that matter to investors.
The SaaSpocalypse is quietly losing force. A rebound in two charts
Information reviewed: 23 October 2026. Fund chart: USD NAV total returns as of 30 September 2026, with distributions reinvested; these are not live quotes. SAP: Q3 2026, released 21 October 2026. ServiceNow: latest published quarter is Q2 2026.
The scenario in which AI rapidly displaces subscription-software vendors is running into reported results. Fund returns and growing cloud businesses weaken extreme pessimism, but do not yet establish a lasting bull market across the sector.
1. A measurable but uneven rebound
In Q3, WCLD returned 26.65% and IGV 17.46%. These are USD NAV total returns. The former focuses on cloud-software companies; the latter covers a broader software sector. Neither represents every SaaS company. September alone, however, delivered −5.98% and −3.38%, respectively. The month is part of the quarter, so these returns must not be added. According to iShares, IGV was up 3.03% year to date as of 21 October. A rebound therefore does not automatically mean every company has recovered its losses. Sources: WisdomTree, iShares.
2. Earnings challenge the extinction scenario
SAP provides the latest example: Q3 cloud revenue grew 26% year over year, or 25% at constant currencies. Current cloud backlog increased 28% and 26%, respectively. Backlog describes contracted future revenue, rather than sales already recognised. Source: SAP, 21 October.
In its latest published quarter, Q2 2026, ServiceNow increased subscription revenue by 24.5%, but GAAP net income declined to USD 298 million from USD 385 million. Sales growth alone is not enough. The company will release Q3 results only on 28 October, after the US market close. Sources: SEC filing, release schedule.
3. From fear to selection
WMA assessment: AI may support sales at companies with customer data, integrations and workflows embedded in organisations. This is an interpretation, not evidence that AI caused the stock-market rebound. Pressure on per-seat pricing, AI costs, shareholder dilution and high valuations remain counterweights. Sustained demand, margins and cash generation will confirm a change; share-price gains alone will not. The SaaSpocalypse is losing force as a story of inevitable extinction, while business selection still matters.
For information and education; not an investment recommendation.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.