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Analysis as of 3 November 2026. Indicative bid/ask quotes: Börse Stuttgart, 21:19:51–21:20:01 CET. Calculations use quote midpoints, not executed trades or the Xetra close. Financials: nine-month 2026 report, published 29 October.
| Share class | Bid | Ask | Midpoint | Time CET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOW · Ordinary shares | 68.15 EUR | 68.6 EUR | 68.375 EUR | 21:20:01 |
| VOW3 · Preferred shares | 68.68 EUR | 68.78 EUR | 68.73 EUR | 21:19:51 |
501,295,263 · VOW: 295,089,818 · VOW3: 206,205,445
Source: Börse Stuttgart · VOW · VOW3 · Volkswagen AG
Profit attributable to shareholders after hybrid capital and non-controlling interests. EUR billion; a period bridge, not a forecast.
Source: Volkswagen AG · 2025 · 9M 2026 (PDF)
Volkswagen · Škoda · Audi · Porsche · TRATON
Loans · leasing · funding
Customer finance and leasing have their own assets and liabilities. Shareholder earnings include both businesses.
Source: Volkswagen AG · 2025 · 9M 2026 (PDF)
Author assumptions. The output is a discounted present value over three years. A 0 dividend input suspends payouts to both share classes.
Earnings required by this price: 7.75 EUR bn
┆ Reference price · midpoint: 68.73 EUR
EPS allocates profit across 501,295,263 shares with a EUR 0.06 preference. The discount rate is cost of equity, not WACC. Dilution, investor tax and a control premium are not modeled.
Value after 3 years: 72.03 EUR · Present value of dividends: 2.55 EUR
| Years | Annual VOW dividend (EUR) | Present value of dividends |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.06 EUR | 0.946 EUR |
| 2 | 1.06 EUR | 0.845 EUR |
| 3 | 1.06 EUR | 0.754 EUR |
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Volkswagen: a low valuation and a costly path back to earnings
Analysis as of 3 November 2026. Indicative bid/ask quotes: Börse Stuttgart, 21:19:51–21:20:01 CET. Calculations use quote midpoints, not executed trades or the Xetra close. Financials: nine-month 2026 report, published 29 October.
Volkswagen looks inexpensive against book equity and 2025 earnings. The latest impairments change that picture. The shares depend on how much the group can earn after restructuring and how long recovery takes.
1. What the market pays for Volkswagen
The subject is Volkswagen AG: the group behind Volkswagen, Škoda, Audi, Porsche, TRATON trucks and financial services. Quoted midpoints are EUR 68.375 for VOW and EUR 68.73 for VOW3. Multiplying by 295,089,818 ordinary and 206,205,445 preferred shares respectively gives an indicative EUR 34.35 billion market capitalization. VOW3 generally carries no voting rights and has dividend preferences. It is a separate class in the same company.
Börse Stuttgart · VOW Börse Stuttgart · VOW3 Volkswagen AG · Shares
2. Historical P/E misses the earnings shift
Earnings attributable to VW AG shareholders were EUR 6.673 billion in 2025. At the reference valuation, that implies a historical P/E of about 5.15. But the last four reported quarters generated just EUR 1.076 billion: 6.673 − 3.523 − 2.074. The resulting trailing P/E is about 31.9. Both ratios are historical, not forecasts. Impairments depress recent earnings, but a return to pre-impairment profits is not guaranteed.
Volkswagen AG · Annual Report 2025 Volkswagen AG · 9M 2026
3. What the latest report shows
January–September 2026 revenue was EUR 233.4 billion, with reported operating profit of EUR 71 million. Before special items, operating profit was around EUR 8.8 billion, a 3.8% margin. A EUR 6.4 billion non-cash impairment of Porsche goodwill was a major item. Its non-cash nature does not remove the underlying profitability challenge. Management’s full-year 2026 outlook is around EUR 315 billion of revenue and a reported operating margin of up to 1%.
Volkswagen AG · 29.10.2026
4. The balance sheet contains two different businesses
Automotive net liquidity was approximately EUR 33.0 billion at September-end. This supports investment and restructuring; it is not all available for distribution. Financial-services borrowing finances activities including loans and leases, so deducting all group debt from a factory-only valuation would mislead. Book equity attributable to shareholders was EUR 170.7 billion, implying price/book of about 0.20. Hybrid capital and non-controlling interests are excluded. Book equity is not liquidation value.
Volkswagen AG · 9M 2026
5. Three valuation scenarios
The model allows three years to reach normalized annual earnings. Earnings in the table belong to shareholders after tax, financing, hybrid capital and non-controlling interests. P/E multiples are the author’s assumptions, not analyst consensus. The three-year equity value is discounted at a 12% cost of equity, with discounted annual dividends of EUR 1 for VOW and EUR 1.06 for VOW3 added. This is a compact scenario model, not a full DCF or a 12-month price target.
Author calculations: approximately EUR 24.0 / 53.8 / 92.2 per VOW3 share. These are discounted present values, not predicted 2029 trading prices. Risks include suspended dividends, delayed recovery and further losses. The model does not add automotive liquidity or separately value Porsche and TRATON again: their earnings are already in group shareholder profit.
6. What the future could look like
Management plans reductions of up to 50% in the model lineup and up to 75% in offering complexity; these are maximum planned reductions. An 8–10% operating margin in 2030 remains an ambition, not an achieved result. More than 20 electrified launches were announced for China in 2026, including hybrids. The first VW model using technology from the Rivian collaboration is planned for 2027. These projects could improve costs and products, but require capital and timely execution.
Volkswagen AG · Future Plan Volkswagen AG · 2030 Volkswagen AG · China Volkswagen AG · Factbook 2026
7. What needs to improve
European electric-vehicle orders rose 39%, while group global BEV deliveries fell 5.4% in the first nine months of 2026. Recovery is uneven. I would monitor the margin before special items, cash restructuring costs, automotive cash flow, China and software milestones. At a 6× multiple, a 12% required return and the assumed dividends, VOW3’s reference price requires approximately EUR 7.75 billion of normalized earnings after three years—above my EUR 6 billion base case. The current price already requires improvement. Its pace and durability determine the shares’ appeal.
The company calendar schedules full-year 2026 results for 9 March 2027.
Volkswagen AG · 9M 2026 Volkswagen AG · Calendar
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.