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Explore the operating assumptions and the cash needed to turn growth into value. All forecasts are the author's assumptions, not company guidance.
Valuation basis: 30 September 2026. Includes results released on 20 October 2026. The share-price reference is a separately dated snapshot, not a live quote.
Operating scenarioBoth series use the same scale. The first forecast period covers the remaining quarter of 2026.
| Period | Q4 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | 1,717 | 8,058 | 9,044 | 10,214 | 11,500 | 12,353 | 13,271 | 14,253 | 15,296 | 16,400 | 16,810 | 17,286 | 17,762 | 18,239 | 18,718 | 19,200 |
| Connectivity | 5,982 | 26,775 | 32,427 | 39,273 | 47,565 | 53,626 | 60,072 | 67,307 | 75,428 | 84,545 | 88,117 | 91,423 | 94,855 | 98,421 | 102,123 | 105,969 |
| Super Intelligence · SI | 10,160 | 57,938 | 84,377 | 123,685 | 182,277 | 227,653 | 253,593 | 282,523 | 314,793 | 350,792 | 374,657 | 388,112 | 402,090 | 416,615 | 431,712 | 447,403 |
| Revenue | 17,859 | 92,772 | 125,848 | 173,172 | 241,342 | 293,632 | 326,937 | 364,084 | 405,517 | 451,737 | 479,585 | 496,820 | 514,707 | 533,275 | 552,553 | 572,573 |
| Space · EBIT | -488 | -1,723 | -1,796 | -1,738 | -1,594 | -1,482 | -1,318 | -783 | 444 | 756 | 637 | 896 | 1,274 | 1,632 | 1,972 | 2,302 |
| Connectivity · EBIT | 2,467 | 10,449 | 11,873 | 17,221 | 20,615 | 22,075 | 24,086 | 26,654 | 29,972 | 33,480 | 33,596 | 33,839 | 34,443 | 35,412 | 36,628 | 37,934 |
| Super Intelligence · SI · EBIT | 441 | 4,271 | 7,470 | 16,125 | 34,552 | 36,733 | 40,760 | 46,265 | 56,852 | 75,133 | 86,391 | 89,861 | 94,793 | 101,357 | 109,737 | 116,475 |
| Operating income · EBIT | 2,420 | 12,997 | 17,547 | 31,608 | 53,573 | 57,326 | 63,527 | 72,136 | 87,269 | 109,368 | 120,625 | 124,595 | 130,510 | 138,401 | 148,338 | 156,710 |
| Cash tax on operations | -605 | -3,249 | -4,387 | -7,902 | -13,393 | -14,331 | -15,882 | -18,034 | -21,817 | -27,342 | -30,156 | -31,149 | -32,627 | -34,600 | -37,084 | -39,178 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 6,320 | 33,542 | 47,255 | 59,457 | 75,476 | 101,413 | 114,576 | 127,607 | 136,658 | 141,587 | 145,537 | 150,784 | 154,420 | 156,428 | 156,756 | 159,031 |
| Space · Capital expenditure | -1,250 | -4,729 | -4,472 | -4,229 | -4,000 | -3,895 | -3,792 | -3,692 | -3,595 | -3,500 | -3,448 | -3,397 | -3,347 | -3,297 | -3,248 | -3,200 |
| Connectivity · Capital expenditure | -1,974 | -8,699 | -10,372 | -12,367 | -14,745 | -16,289 | -17,880 | -19,629 | -21,554 | -23,673 | -24,370 | -24,974 | -25,593 | -26,229 | -26,882 | -27,552 |
| Super Intelligence · SI · Capital expenditure | -34,276 | -45,811 | -84,869 | -127,161 | -153,043 | -111,638 | -122,364 | -134,121 | -147,007 | -149,468 | -129,190 | -132,625 | -136,153 | -139,774 | -143,491 | -143,874 |
| Other equity bridge adjustments · Capital expenditure | -0 | -5,000 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Capital expenditure | -37,500 | -64,238 | -99,713 | -143,757 | -171,788 | -131,822 | -144,036 | -157,442 | -172,156 | -176,641 | -157,008 | -160,996 | -165,093 | -169,300 | -173,621 | -174,626 |
| Change in working capital | -394 | -640 | -992 | -1,420 | -2,045 | -1,569 | -999 | -1,114 | -1,243 | -1,387 | -835 | -517 | -537 | -557 | -578 | -601 |
| Free cash flow to the firm · FCFF | -29,759 | -21,589 | -40,290 | -62,014 | -58,178 | 11,016 | 17,187 | 23,153 | 28,710 | 45,586 | 78,163 | 82,717 | 86,673 | 90,372 | 93,810 | 101,337 |
| Discount factor | 0.972 | 0.868 | 0.775 | 0.692 | 0.618 | 0.552 | 0.493 | 0.440 | 0.393 | 0.351 | 0.313 | 0.280 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.199 | 0.178 |
| Present value of FCFF | -28,929 | -18,740 | -31,231 | -42,927 | -35,962 | 6,081 | 8,472 | 10,191 | 11,285 | 16,000 | 24,499 | 23,152 | 21,663 | 20,170 | 18,697 | 18,036 |
FCFF = EBIT − cash tax + depreciation − capex − change in working capital.
| Driver | Q4 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink consumer subscribers | 15,500,000 | 19,000,533 | 23,291,629 | 28,551,831 | 35,000,000 | 38,983,846 | 43,421,151 | 48,363,527 | 53,868,466 | 60,000,000 | 62,946,904 | 66,038,545 | 69,282,032 | 72,684,824 | 76,254,743 | 80,000,000 |
| Starlink monthly ARPU · USD | 68 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 64 | 63 | 63 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 60 | 60 |
| Enterprise and government revenue · annual USD million | 9,600 | 11,675 | 14,199 | 17,268 | 21,000 | 23,888 | 27,174 | 30,912 | 35,163 | 40,000 | 41,234 | 42,506 | 43,818 | 45,170 | 46,563 | 48,000 |
| External customer launches | 14 | 68 | 77 | 88 | 100 | 110 | 121 | 133 | 146 | 160 | 165 | 171 | 177 | 183 | 189 | 195 |
| Blended launch revenue · USD million | 78 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 62 | 61 | 60 |
| Space cash R&D · annual USD million | 5,000 | 5,233 | 5,477 | 5,733 | 6,000 | 6,039 | 6,079 | 6,119 | 6,159 | 6,200 | 6,249 | 6,298 | 6,348 | 6,398 | 6,449 | 6,500 |
| Installed compute · GW | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 |
| Compute utilization | 80.0% | 80.5% | 81.0% | 81.5% | 82.0% | 82.6% | 83.2% | 83.8% | 84.4% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% |
| Annual compute revenue per utilized GW · USD million | 18,000 | 17,613 | 17,234 | 16,863 | 16,500 | 16,079 | 15,669 | 15,269 | 14,880 | 14,500 | 14,238 | 13,982 | 13,730 | 13,482 | 13,239 | 13,000 |
| SI applications revenue · annual USD million | 8,000 | 10,417 | 13,565 | 17,663 | 23,000 | 26,304 | 30,083 | 34,405 | 39,347 | 45,000 | 47,844 | 50,868 | 54,083 | 57,502 | 61,136 | 65,000 |
| AI hardware life · years | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Connectivity cash margin before stock compensation | 67.0% | 66.7% | 66.5% | 66.2% | 66.0% | 65.6% | 65.2% | 64.8% | 64.4% | 64.0% | 63.7% | 63.3% | 63.0% | 62.7% | 62.3% | 62.0% |
| Cloud cash margin before stock compensation | 64.0% | 63.7% | 63.5% | 63.2% | 63.0% | 62.8% | 62.6% | 62.4% | 62.2% | 62.0% | 61.7% | 61.3% | 61.0% | 60.7% | 60.3% | 60.0% |
| Space EBIT margin | -28.4% | -21.4% | -19.9% | -17.0% | -13.9% | -12.0% | -9.9% | -5.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.0% |
| Connectivity EBIT margin | 41.2% | 39.0% | 36.6% | 43.8% | 43.3% | 41.2% | 40.1% | 39.6% | 39.7% | 39.6% | 38.1% | 37.0% | 36.3% | 36.0% | 35.9% | 35.8% |
| SI EBIT margin | 4.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 18.1% | 21.4% | 23.1% | 23.2% | 23.6% | 24.3% | 25.4% | 26.0% |
| Economic stock-compensation cost · USD million | 1,316 | 6,847 | 9,153 | 12,356 | 16,814 | 19,610 | 20,687 | 21,826 | 23,033 | 24,309 | 25,106 | 25,245 | 25,388 | 25,533 | 25,682 | 25,834 |
A conservative economic stress before new financing: treats stock compensation as a cash-equivalent cost and includes assumed gross interest and near-term principal. This is not a literal cash borrowing forecast. Financing terms and resulting dilution are not projected; the gap is not deducted again from equity value.
| WACC / g | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.48% | 25.79 | 26.23 | 26.73 | 27.28 | 27.91 |
| 10.98% | 22.86 | 23.19 | 23.55 | 23.95 | 24.41 |
| 11.48% | 20.30 | 20.54 | 20.80 | 21.09 | 21.41 |
| 11.98% | 18.04 | 18.21 | 18.40 | 18.61 | 18.84 |
| 12.48% | 16.04 | 16.17 | 16.30 | 16.45 | 16.60 |
| 12.98% | 14.27 | 14.36 | 14.45 | 14.55 | 14.65 |
| 13.48% | 12.70 | 12.75 | 12.81 | 12.87 | 12.93 |
Market commentary
My perspective on markets, the economy and events that matter to investors.
SpaceX: an in-depth DCF — Starlink, space and AI
Information: 20 October 2026, following the Q3 results release. Balance-sheet and discounting anchor: 30 September 2026. Reference quote on 20 October: $147.79; not a live price. Valuation uses reported common shares, before other unquantified claims. Forecasts are the author's assumptions.
Today's SpaceX combines three businesses: space services, Starlink and Super Intelligence, which includes xAI, X and Cursor. Valuing only Starlink and rockets would omit a substantial part of group revenue and investment.
Brief commentary
In Q3, the group generated $14.575 billion of revenue and $2.791 billion of operating income. Yet operating cash flow in the first nine months was $13.097 billion, versus $48.069 billion of cash spending on property, plant and equipment. The difference is −$34.972 billion; this measure should not be confused with FCFF. Growth needs funding even when the income statement shows a profit. Source: SpaceX Q3 2026 report, pp. 3–6 and 9–12.
My base-case DCF produces approximately $250 billion of equity value, or $18.40 per reported share, against the $147.79 reference quote. The upside case produces $190.54; the downside case does not support positive equity value and displays $0. These are conditional outputs from specific assumptions, rather than price forecasts or probabilities of bankruptcy. In the base case, 90.2% of EV comes from terminal value.
On the earnings call, management outlined $35–40 billion of Q4 capex and $33–37 billion of Q1 2027 revenue, according to MarketWatch. The base case includes $37.5 billion of Q4 investment but deliberately assumes slower subsequent AI expansion than management ambitions. It is the author’s forecast, not consensus. Capex coverage, revenue coverage.
My assessment: the high market price requires substantially better growth economics than the base case assumes. AI capacity utilization, service pricing, hardware and satellite replacement cycles, and margins after stock compensation are critical. Revenue scale alone is insufficient.
How to read the model
The interactive DCF below covers the remaining quarter of 2026 and 15 forecast years, 2027–2041. The Excel workbook contains editable assumptions, formulas, segment models, asset depreciation, taxes, working capital, funding and WACC/g sensitivity. Download the complete Excel model.
Reported data and assumptions are distinguished. Average subscriber numbers drive Starlink services; internal satellite launches do not create additional sales. Investment includes infrastructure replacement and a construction-in-progress roll-forward. SBC remains an economic cost. 13.579 billion shares is the reported common count, rather than a fully diluted total; additional dilution can be stressed separately.
Additional sources: SEC — Q2 10-Q and accounting policies, IPO prospectus — history and business, SEC — infrastructure useful lives, SPCX reference quote.
Posts reflect the author’s personal views as of publication. They are not investment recommendations.